Amish Shah holds a strong lead in trader assessments for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat, vacated by Republican David Schweikert’s unsuccessful gubernatorial bid, sits in a competitive suburban Phoenix area where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee ahead. A FirstStrategic survey conducted October 1 found Shah at 44.4% to Jay Feely’s 41.6%, driven by a 22-point advantage among independent voters who disapprove of President Trump’s job performance. The October 7 debate reinforced this dynamic, with Shah highlighting Feely’s Trump endorsement and alignment on tariffs and other issues while positioning himself as independent, including through cross-aisle support. Forecasters rate the race Lean Democratic or Toss-up, reflecting the district’s narrow recent margins and the impact of turnout among independents ahead of the November 3 general election.