Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for "No" due to insurmountable constitutional barriers—affirmed by the Supreme Court in Texas v. White (1869)—prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent, alongside zero introduced bills or resolutions in any state legislature advancing toward a vote by June 30, 2026. Recent YouGov polling (February 2026) shows public support declining to about 18% nationally, with no procedural momentum in ongoing sessions like Texas or California, where past fringe efforts stalled early. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented crises, such as federal-state standoffs escalating to symbolic floor votes, though bipartisan opposition and political risks render this improbable absent late-breaking national emergencies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Alguna legislatura estatal de EE. UU. vota sobre la secesión antes del 30 de junio de 2026?
¿Alguna legislatura estatal de EE. UU. vota sobre la secesión antes del 30 de junio de 2026?
Sí
$19,026 Vol.
$19,026 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Sí
$19,026 Vol.
$19,026 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for "No" due to insurmountable constitutional barriers—affirmed by the Supreme Court in Texas v. White (1869)—prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent, alongside zero introduced bills or resolutions in any state legislature advancing toward a vote by June 30, 2026. Recent YouGov polling (February 2026) shows public support declining to about 18% nationally, with no procedural momentum in ongoing sessions like Texas or California, where past fringe efforts stalled early. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented crises, such as federal-state standoffs escalating to symbolic floor votes, though bipartisan opposition and political risks render this improbable absent late-breaking national emergencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volumen
$19,026Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for "No" due to insurmountable constitutional barriers—affirmed by the Supreme Court in Texas v. White (1869)—prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent, alongside zero introduced bills or resolutions in any state legislature advancing toward a vote by June 30, 2026. Recent YouGov polling (February 2026) shows public support declining to about 18% nationally, with no procedural momentum in ongoing sessions like Texas or California, where past fringe efforts stalled early. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented crises, such as federal-state standoffs escalating to symbolic floor votes, though bipartisan opposition and political risks render this improbable absent late-breaking national emergencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$19,026Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for "No" due to insurmountable constitutional barriers—affirmed by the Supreme Court in Texas v. White (1869)—prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent, alongside zero introduced bills or resolutions in any state legislature advancing toward a vote by June 30, 2026. Recent YouGov polling (February 2026) shows public support declining to about 18% nationally, with no procedural momentum in ongoing sessions like Texas or California, where past fringe efforts stalled early. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented crises, such as federal-state standoffs escalating to symbolic floor votes, though bipartisan opposition and political risks render this improbable absent late-breaking national emergencies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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