Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.9% implied probability for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) affirming the Union's indissoluble nature and prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent. No bills or resolutions on full state secession have been introduced or advanced in any state legislature during recent sessions, including 2026 gatherings in Texas, Florida, and New Mexico, where discussions centered on county boundary adjustments rather than national exit. Absent extraordinary catalysts like constitutional crisis, widespread unrest, or federal dissolution—none evident in current political stability—odds reflect minimal risk of such a vote amid procedural and legal barriers. State legislative calendars through mid-2026 show no scheduled hearings on the topic.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Alguna legislatura estatal de EE. UU. vota sobre la secesión antes del 30 de junio de 2026?
¿Alguna legislatura estatal de EE. UU. vota sobre la secesión antes del 30 de junio de 2026?
Sí
$19,709 Vol.
$19,709 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Sí
$19,709 Vol.
$19,709 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.9% implied probability for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) affirming the Union's indissoluble nature and prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent. No bills or resolutions on full state secession have been introduced or advanced in any state legislature during recent sessions, including 2026 gatherings in Texas, Florida, and New Mexico, where discussions centered on county boundary adjustments rather than national exit. Absent extraordinary catalysts like constitutional crisis, widespread unrest, or federal dissolution—none evident in current political stability—odds reflect minimal risk of such a vote amid procedural and legal barriers. State legislative calendars through mid-2026 show no scheduled hearings on the topic.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volumen
$19,709Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.9% implied probability for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) affirming the Union's indissoluble nature and prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent. No bills or resolutions on full state secession have been introduced or advanced in any state legislature during recent sessions, including 2026 gatherings in Texas, Florida, and New Mexico, where discussions centered on county boundary adjustments rather than national exit. Absent extraordinary catalysts like constitutional crisis, widespread unrest, or federal dissolution—none evident in current political stability—odds reflect minimal risk of such a vote amid procedural and legal barriers. State legislative calendars through mid-2026 show no scheduled hearings on the topic.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$19,709Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.9% implied probability for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) affirming the Union's indissoluble nature and prohibiting unilateral state secession without federal consent. No bills or resolutions on full state secession have been introduced or advanced in any state legislature during recent sessions, including 2026 gatherings in Texas, Florida, and New Mexico, where discussions centered on county boundary adjustments rather than national exit. Absent extraordinary catalysts like constitutional crisis, widespread unrest, or federal dissolution—none evident in current political stability—odds reflect minimal risk of such a vote amid procedural and legal barriers. State legislative calendars through mid-2026 show no scheduled hearings on the topic.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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