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¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?

Market icon

¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?

Sí

7% chance
Polymarket

$107,954 Vol.

Sí

7% chance
Polymarket

$107,954 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% implied probability for any EU member withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of official actions like Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020 and high structural barriers including constitutional requirements, parliamentary votes, and referendums. Recent Polexit rhetoric in Poland—fueled by opposition PiS criticism and President Nawrocki's rule-of-law proposals, which PM Tusk's government labeled as exit risks—has been dismissed by fact checks as lacking legal momentum, with Euronews confirming no imminent steps as of mid-March 2026. Euroskeptic gains in national politics, from Hungary's EU critiques to softened Frexit or Italexit talk, remain marginalized amid post-Brexit economic deterrence and EU fiscal cohesion through 2027, leaving late-breaking crises or election upsets as rare shift factors.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% implied probability for any EU member withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of official actions like Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020 and high structural barriers including constitutional requirements, parliamentary votes, and referendums. Recent Polexit rhetoric in Poland—fueled by opposition PiS criticism and President Nawrocki's rule-of-law proposals, which PM Tusk's government labeled as exit risks—has been dismissed by fact checks as lacking legal momentum, with Euronews confirming no imminent steps as of mid-March 2026. Euroskeptic gains in national politics, from Hungary's EU critiques to softened Frexit or Italexit talk, remain marginalized amid post-Brexit economic deterrence and EU fiscal cohesion through 2027, leaving late-breaking crises or election upsets as rare shift factors.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% implied probability for any EU member withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of official actions like Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020 and high structural barriers including constitutional requirements, parliamentary votes, and referendums. Recent Polexit rhetoric in Poland—fueled by opposition PiS criticism and President Nawrocki's rule-of-law proposals, which PM Tusk's government labeled as exit risks—has been dismissed by fact checks as lacking legal momentum, with Euronews confirming no imminent steps as of mid-March 2026. Euroskeptic gains in national politics, from Hungary's EU critiques to softened Frexit or Italexit talk, remain marginalized amid post-Brexit economic deterrence and EU fiscal cohesion through 2027, leaving late-breaking crises or election upsets as rare shift factors.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% implied probability for any EU member withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of official actions like Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020 and high structural barriers including constitutional requirements, parliamentary votes, and referendums. Recent Polexit rhetoric in Poland—fueled by opposition PiS criticism and President Nawrocki's rule-of-law proposals, which PM Tusk's government labeled as exit risks—has been dismissed by fact checks as lacking legal momentum, with Euronews confirming no imminent steps as of mid-March 2026. Euroskeptic gains in national politics, from Hungary's EU critiques to softened Frexit or Italexit talk, remain marginalized amid post-Brexit economic deterrence and EU fiscal cohesion through 2027, leaving late-breaking crises or election upsets as rare shift factors.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 7¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 7% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" ha generado $108K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 8, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" es "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" con solo 7%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.