Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a mid-80s high temperature in Houston on March 27, with 84-85°F leading at 23.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting 83-86°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence warming and southerly winds. Ensemble model averages from GFS and ECMWF cluster around 85°F, but slight divergences arise from sea breeze timing and potential afternoon cloudiness, which could shave 2-3°F off peaks (favoring 82-83°F or 84-85°F) or allow sunnier skies to push toward 86-89°F. Historical March 27 highs average 76°F but often spike into the 80s under similar ridging, underscoring the tight odds as traders weigh short-range forecast refinements expected by March 26.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on March 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 27?
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 18%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
15%
94°F or higher
2%
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 18%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
15%
94°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a mid-80s high temperature in Houston on March 27, with 84-85°F leading at 23.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting 83-86°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting subsidence warming and southerly winds. Ensemble model averages from GFS and ECMWF cluster around 85°F, but slight divergences arise from sea breeze timing and potential afternoon cloudiness, which could shave 2-3°F off peaks (favoring 82-83°F or 84-85°F) or allow sunnier skies to push toward 86-89°F. Historical March 27 highs average 76°F but often spike into the 80s under similar ridging, underscoring the tight odds as traders weigh short-range forecast refinements expected by March 26.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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