Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race for Austin's highest temperature on March 27, with 88-89°F (30.5%) edging 86-87°F (24.0%) and 90-91°F (21.5%), driven by divergent major forecast models under a dominant upper-level high-pressure ridge over Texas. National Weather Service guidance calls for a high near 89°F with abundant sunshine, light winds, and strong subsidence aloft inhibiting cloud formation to maximize insolation and surface heating. The ridge strengthened markedly in the past 48 hours, fueling record or near-record March warmth earlier this week (highs 85-88°F). Key differentiators include model spreads—GFS leaning cooler around 87°F due to subtle boundary-layer mixing, ECMWF warmer near 91°F with drier air—plus risks of isolated afternoon cumulus. Updated 12z runs from NOAA models due midday could sharpen odds before observations resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on March 27?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?
86-87°F 30%
88-89°F 30%
90-91°F 20%
84-85°F 17%
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
30%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
3%
86-87°F 30%
88-89°F 30%
90-91°F 20%
84-85°F 17%
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
30%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race for Austin's highest temperature on March 27, with 88-89°F (30.5%) edging 86-87°F (24.0%) and 90-91°F (21.5%), driven by divergent major forecast models under a dominant upper-level high-pressure ridge over Texas. National Weather Service guidance calls for a high near 89°F with abundant sunshine, light winds, and strong subsidence aloft inhibiting cloud formation to maximize insolation and surface heating. The ridge strengthened markedly in the past 48 hours, fueling record or near-record March warmth earlier this week (highs 85-88°F). Key differentiators include model spreads—GFS leaning cooler around 87°F due to subtle boundary-layer mixing, ECMWF warmer near 91°F with drier air—plus risks of isolated afternoon cumulus. Updated 12z runs from NOAA models due midday could sharpen odds before observations resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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