Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast for March 29 points to sunny intervals with a high around 27°C amid light winds and low humidity, anchoring trader consensus at 37.5% implied probability for exactly 27°C as the peak temperature. This edges out 29°C or higher at 25.5%, reflecting caution over potential afternoon heating from urban heat island effects and residual warmth from March 28's 28.2°C high—warmer than the 22°C March climatological average. Ensemble models from global centers like ECMWF show divergence, with 60% chance of 26-28°C range, while cooler outliers below 25°C fade amid ongoing El Niño influences boosting regional heat. Traders eye HKO's noon update for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Hong Kong on March 29?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 29?
27°C 43%
24°C 30%
29°C or higher 26%
25°C 17%
19°C or below
8%
20°C
9%
21°C
13%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
16%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C
38%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
26%
27°C 43%
24°C 30%
29°C or higher 26%
25°C 17%
19°C or below
8%
20°C
9%
21°C
13%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
16%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C
38%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast for March 29 points to sunny intervals with a high around 27°C amid light winds and low humidity, anchoring trader consensus at 37.5% implied probability for exactly 27°C as the peak temperature. This edges out 29°C or higher at 25.5%, reflecting caution over potential afternoon heating from urban heat island effects and residual warmth from March 28's 28.2°C high—warmer than the 22°C March climatological average. Ensemble models from global centers like ECMWF show divergence, with 60% chance of 26-28°C range, while cooler outliers below 25°C fade amid ongoing El Niño influences boosting regional heat. Traders eye HKO's noon update for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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