Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already through April 18: M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—three in 10 days along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones—exceeds the historical global average of 15–20 M7+ events per year, or roughly 1.3 monthly, fueling bets on continued activity. With 2.5 months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring of tectonic stress in active regions like Indonesia and the southwest Pacific will provide key updates, though earthquake clustering defies precise forecasting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben mit einer Stärke von 7,0 oder mehr bis zum 30. Juni?
Wie viele Erdbeben mit einer Stärke von 7,0 oder mehr bis zum 30. Juni?
8+ 81%
7 18%
Gruppeneintragstitel: 6 2.1%
$1,821,488 Vol.
$1,821,488 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Gruppeneintragstitel: 6
2%
7
18%
8+
81%
8+ 81%
7 18%
Gruppeneintragstitel: 6 2.1%
$1,821,488 Vol.
$1,821,488 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Gruppeneintragstitel: 6
$119,391 Vol.
2%
7
$278,545 Vol.
18%
8+
$539,427 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already through April 18: M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—three in 10 days along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones—exceeds the historical global average of 15–20 M7+ events per year, or roughly 1.3 monthly, fueling bets on continued activity. With 2.5 months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring of tectonic stress in active regions like Indonesia and the southwest Pacific will provide key updates, though earthquake clustering defies precise forecasting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Volumen
$1,821,488Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already through April 18: M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—three in 10 days along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones—exceeds the historical global average of 15–20 M7+ events per year, or roughly 1.3 monthly, fueling bets on continued activity. With 2.5 months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring of tectonic stress in active regions like Indonesia and the southwest Pacific will provide key updates, though earthquake clustering defies precise forecasting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,821,488Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already through April 18: M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—three in 10 days along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones—exceeds the historical global average of 15–20 M7+ events per year, or roughly 1.3 monthly, fueling bets on continued activity. With 2.5 months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring of tectonic stress in active regions like Indonesia and the southwest Pacific will provide key updates, though earthquake clustering defies precise forecasting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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