Trader sentiment favors a potential heat outlier for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 29, with 76°F or higher leading at 24.5% implied probability, propelled by recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble models forecasting a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Northern California that could erode the persistent marine layer. Official NWS guidance projects a baseline high near 68-71°F under partly cloudy skies with light onshore flow, but differentiation hinges on stratus cloud burn-off timing: early clearance enables adiabatic warming and upper-70s peaks, while prolonged coastal fog caps readings at 66-67°F, aligning with the clustered 17% odds for mid-60s to mid-70s ranges. Historical March norms hover around 62°F, underscoring the upside volatility from synoptic ridging amid La Niña influences.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?
76°F or higher 25%
66-67°F 17%
68-69°F 17%
70-71°F 17%
57°F or below
2%
58-59°F
11%
60-61°F
12%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
17%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
17%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
17%
76°F or higher
25%
76°F or higher 25%
66-67°F 17%
68-69°F 17%
70-71°F 17%
57°F or below
2%
58-59°F
11%
60-61°F
12%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
17%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
17%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
17%
76°F or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors a potential heat outlier for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 29, with 76°F or higher leading at 24.5% implied probability, propelled by recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble models forecasting a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Northern California that could erode the persistent marine layer. Official NWS guidance projects a baseline high near 68-71°F under partly cloudy skies with light onshore flow, but differentiation hinges on stratus cloud burn-off timing: early clearance enables adiabatic warming and upper-70s peaks, while prolonged coastal fog caps readings at 66-67°F, aligning with the clustered 17% odds for mid-60s to mid-70s ranges. Historical March norms hover around 62°F, underscoring the upside volatility from synoptic ridging amid La Niña influences.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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