Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 28 hinges on divergent weather model outputs, with NOAA's GFS ensembles leaning toward 70-74°F (market-implied ~47% combined for 70°F+), fueled by a developing high-pressure ridge over the Pacific, potentially enhancing downslope warming and fog burnout. However, ECMWF runs and coastal marine layer persistence cap upside risk, clustering alternatives around 64-69°F (60% odds), aligning with March climatology where highs average 62°F but vary 10°F due to diurnal solar heating and stratus deck timing. NWS latest guidance points to 68°F at SFO, but 24-48 hour forecast refinements could shift trader consensus as offshore flow strengthens.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 28?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 28?
74°F or higher 29%
66-67°F 22%
68-69°F 21%
72-73°F 20%
55°F or below
10%
56-57°F
12%
58-59°F
14%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
18%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
19%
72-73°F
20%
74°F or higher
29%
74°F or higher 29%
66-67°F 22%
68-69°F 21%
72-73°F 20%
55°F or below
10%
56-57°F
12%
58-59°F
14%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
18%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
19%
72-73°F
20%
74°F or higher
29%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 28 hinges on divergent weather model outputs, with NOAA's GFS ensembles leaning toward 70-74°F (market-implied ~47% combined for 70°F+), fueled by a developing high-pressure ridge over the Pacific, potentially enhancing downslope warming and fog burnout. However, ECMWF runs and coastal marine layer persistence cap upside risk, clustering alternatives around 64-69°F (60% odds), aligning with March climatology where highs average 62°F but vary 10°F due to diurnal solar heating and stratus deck timing. NWS latest guidance points to 68°F at SFO, but 24-48 hour forecast refinements could shift trader consensus as offshore flow strengthens.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen