Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on March 28, with implied probabilities clustered around 21–25°C amid variable spring weather patterns. Latest model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show a slight edge to 23°C due to lingering northeasterly winds moderating warmth after recent frontal passage, while 25°C gains traction from potential diurnal heating and urban heat island effects in Taipei. Lower odds for extremes stem from climatological baselines—March averages ~23°C—with minimal risk of 26°C+ absent strong southerlies or 16°C- from rare cold surges. Key differentiator: cloud cover and sea breeze strength; watch CWA's 12Z update tomorrow for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Taipei on March 28?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 28?
23°C 32%
25°C 20%
21°C 17%
24°C 16%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
10%
20°C
8%
21°C
14%
22°C
18%
23°C
24%
24°C
16%
25°C
20%
26°C or higher
9%
23°C 32%
25°C 20%
21°C 17%
24°C 16%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
10%
20°C
8%
21°C
14%
22°C
18%
23°C
24%
24°C
16%
25°C
20%
26°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on March 28, with implied probabilities clustered around 21–25°C amid variable spring weather patterns. Latest model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show a slight edge to 23°C due to lingering northeasterly winds moderating warmth after recent frontal passage, while 25°C gains traction from potential diurnal heating and urban heat island effects in Taipei. Lower odds for extremes stem from climatological baselines—March averages ~23°C—with minimal risk of 26°C+ absent strong southerlies or 16°C- from rare cold surges. Key differentiator: cloud cover and sea breeze strength; watch CWA's 12Z update tomorrow for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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