Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects closely matched forecasts projecting Chengdu's highest temperature on March 28 near 23-24°C, with 23°C at 27% and 24°C or higher at 25.5% leading amid model uncertainty. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance over the past 24 hours shows a stable high-pressure ridge over the Sichuan Basin fostering mild conditions after mid-week cold front clearance, but variable low-level clouds and light southerly winds could cap peak heating—key factors differentiating the outcomes. Global ensembles like ECMWF lean slightly warmer with clearer afternoon skies in some runs, while GFS variants predict haze limiting solar insolation. Official station data, historically averaging 19-21°C in late March, will resolve; no major shifts expected absent sudden frontal activity.