Trader sentiment clusters around mild conditions for Toronto's March 24 high temperature, with 6°C or higher leading at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 4°C (27%) and 5°C (22.5%), reflecting Environment Canada's latest GFS and GEM model ensembles forecasting a peak near 6-8°C under persistent southerly winds and high pressure ridging. This aligns with a positive temperature anomaly—March averages hover at 5-6°C historically—bolstered by retreating Arctic air masses and soil preconditioning from recent thaws. Short-term updates from midnight model runs have nudged odds upward for warmer outcomes, though convective cloud cover introduces ~2-3°C uncertainty per probabilistic forecasts from NOAA's HRRR. Key resolution hinges on Pearson Airport observations by midnight UTC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Toronto am 24. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Toronto am 24. März?
6°C oder höher 50%
4°C 26%
5°C 22%
3°C 6%
-4°C oder darunter
<1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
2%
1°C
5%
2°C
6%
3°C
6%
4°C
26%
5°C
22%
6°C oder höher
41%
6°C oder höher 50%
4°C 26%
5°C 22%
3°C 6%
-4°C oder darunter
<1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
2%
1°C
5%
2°C
6%
3°C
6%
4°C
26%
5°C
22%
6°C oder höher
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around mild conditions for Toronto's March 24 high temperature, with 6°C or higher leading at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 4°C (27%) and 5°C (22.5%), reflecting Environment Canada's latest GFS and GEM model ensembles forecasting a peak near 6-8°C under persistent southerly winds and high pressure ridging. This aligns with a positive temperature anomaly—March averages hover at 5-6°C historically—bolstered by retreating Arctic air masses and soil preconditioning from recent thaws. Short-term updates from midnight model runs have nudged odds upward for warmer outcomes, though convective cloud cover introduces ~2-3°C uncertainty per probabilistic forecasts from NOAA's HRRR. Key resolution hinges on Pearson Airport observations by midnight UTC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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