Polymarket traders price Seattle's April precipitation with <2.5 inches leading at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by adjacent bins, reflecting NOAA Climate Prediction Center's recent outlook favoring slightly drier-than-normal totals in the Pacific Northwest amid ENSO-neutral conditions that suppress intense atmospheric rivers. Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show 2-3 inch ranges dominating, below the 2.9-inch climatological average, driven by ridging patterns and reduced moisture transport observed in the past week's guidance—no major storms materialized recently. Differentiating factors include model spread on late-month frontal activity versus persistent high pressure; monitor daily model runs and CPC updates for shifts before month-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPrecipitation in Seattle in April?
Precipitation in Seattle in April?
<2.5" 36%
2.5-3" 31%
3-3.5" 31%
3.5-4" 31%
<2.5"
36%
2.5-3"
31%
3-3.5"
31%
3.5-4"
31%
4-4.5"
29%
4.5-5"
26%
>5"
25%
<2.5" 36%
2.5-3" 31%
3-3.5" 31%
3.5-4" 31%
<2.5"
36%
2.5-3"
31%
3-3.5"
31%
3.5-4"
31%
4-4.5"
29%
4.5-5"
26%
>5"
25%
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price Seattle's April precipitation with <2.5 inches leading at 38.5% implied probability, closely trailed by adjacent bins, reflecting NOAA Climate Prediction Center's recent outlook favoring slightly drier-than-normal totals in the Pacific Northwest amid ENSO-neutral conditions that suppress intense atmospheric rivers. Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show 2-3 inch ranges dominating, below the 2.9-inch climatological average, driven by ridging patterns and reduced moisture transport observed in the past week's guidance—no major storms materialized recently. Differentiating factors include model spread on late-month frontal activity versus persistent high pressure; monitor daily model runs and CPC updates for shifts before month-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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