Trader consensus on NYC April precipitation reflects tight uncertainty around 2-6 inches, with 2-3", 3-4", and 4-5" outcomes each at 31%, driven by current totals near 2.8 inches through April 25 per NOAA observations at Central Park, plus forecasts from the National Weather Service projecting 0.5-1.5 additional inches over the final days amid variable spring frontal systems. Historical April averages hover at 3.98 inches (1901-2023), but neutral ENSO conditions and divergent model runs—GFS leaning drier, ECMWF slightly wetter—create balanced odds, as low-pressure troughs could boost totals while ridging suppresses them. Key resolution hinges on weekend rainfall; updated Climate Prediction Center outlooks due next week may sharpen trader positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPrecipitation in NYC in April?
Precipitation in NYC in April?
<2" 44%
2-3" 31%
4-5" 31%
3-4" 31%
<2"
44%
2-3"
31%
3-4"
31%
4-5"
31%
5-6"
30%
>6"
30%
<2" 44%
2-3" 31%
4-5" 31%
3-4" 31%
<2"
44%
2-3"
31%
3-4"
31%
4-5"
31%
5-6"
30%
>6"
30%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on NYC April precipitation reflects tight uncertainty around 2-6 inches, with 2-3", 3-4", and 4-5" outcomes each at 31%, driven by current totals near 2.8 inches through April 25 per NOAA observations at Central Park, plus forecasts from the National Weather Service projecting 0.5-1.5 additional inches over the final days amid variable spring frontal systems. Historical April averages hover at 3.98 inches (1901-2023), but neutral ENSO conditions and divergent model runs—GFS leaning drier, ECMWF slightly wetter—create balanced odds, as low-pressure troughs could boost totals while ridging suppresses them. Key resolution hinges on weekend rainfall; updated Climate Prediction Center outlooks due next week may sharpen trader positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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