Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 26–30°C for Buenos Aires on March 27, with 28°C leading at 22.5% amid tight clustering reflecting model ensemble uncertainty. Latest GFS and ECMWF runs project peaks around 27–29°C under a persistent subtropical ridge fostering adiabatic warming and suppressed convection, per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance showing 28°C as most likely at Ezeiza Airport—the market's resolution station. Differentiators include potential sea breeze incursions cooling coastal areas by 1–2°C versus urban heat island amplification inland, plus a weak frontal boundary's timing; historical March 27 averages hover at 24°C, but positive geopotential height anomalies signal 3–5°C above normal. Traders eye 12Z updates for shifts, as afternoon thunderstorms could cap extremes below 30°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 27?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 27?
28°C 26%
27°C 21%
26°C 14%
29°C 14%
23°C or below
10%
24°C
9%
25°C
10%
26°C
14%
27°C
21%
28°C
25%
29°C
14%
30°C
14%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
5%
28°C 26%
27°C 21%
26°C 14%
29°C 14%
23°C or below
10%
24°C
9%
25°C
10%
26°C
14%
27°C
21%
28°C
25%
29°C
14%
30°C
14%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 26–30°C for Buenos Aires on March 27, with 28°C leading at 22.5% amid tight clustering reflecting model ensemble uncertainty. Latest GFS and ECMWF runs project peaks around 27–29°C under a persistent subtropical ridge fostering adiabatic warming and suppressed convection, per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance showing 28°C as most likely at Ezeiza Airport—the market's resolution station. Differentiators include potential sea breeze incursions cooling coastal areas by 1–2°C versus urban heat island amplification inland, plus a weak frontal boundary's timing; historical March 27 averages hover at 24°C, but positive geopotential height anomalies signal 3–5°C above normal. Traders eye 12Z updates for shifts, as afternoon thunderstorms could cap extremes below 30°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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