Preliminary NOAA global land-ocean surface temperature data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901–2000 baseline, yielding trader consensus of 95.8% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C outcome as the market nears resolution. This positioning reflects second-warmest-on-record sea surface temperatures (21.08°C average) per Copernicus Marine Service, tempered by cooler land anomalies amid the transition from strong El Niño to neutral ENSO conditions, following March's warmer 1.31°C reading. Datasets like ERA5 show higher pre-industrial anomalies (~1.43°C), but NOAA's GLB.Ts+dSST series governs resolution. Scenarios challenging this include late-month data revisions shifting the value by >0.05°C or unexpected SST adjustments in the forthcoming official NOAA Global Climate Report, due mid-May.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertApril 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
April 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 95.8%
1,20–1,24ºC 2.2%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.6%
>1,29ºC <1%
$332,402 Vol.
$332,402 Vol.
10. Mai 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
96%
1,20–1,24ºC
2%
1,25–1,29ºC
<1%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC 95.8%
1,20–1,24ºC 2.2%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.6%
>1,29ºC <1%
$332,402 Vol.
$332,402 Vol.
10. Mai 2026
<1,10ºC
$54,938 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$61,450 Vol.
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
$47,150 Vol.
96%
1,20–1,24ºC
$66,845 Vol.
2%
1,25–1,29ºC
$57,480 Vol.
<1%
>1,29ºC
$44,538 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA global land-ocean surface temperature data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901–2000 baseline, yielding trader consensus of 95.8% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C outcome as the market nears resolution. This positioning reflects second-warmest-on-record sea surface temperatures (21.08°C average) per Copernicus Marine Service, tempered by cooler land anomalies amid the transition from strong El Niño to neutral ENSO conditions, following March's warmer 1.31°C reading. Datasets like ERA5 show higher pre-industrial anomalies (~1.43°C), but NOAA's GLB.Ts+dSST series governs resolution. Scenarios challenging this include late-month data revisions shifting the value by >0.05°C or unexpected SST adjustments in the forthcoming official NOAA Global Climate Report, due mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$332,402Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA global land-ocean surface temperature data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901–2000 baseline, yielding trader consensus of 95.8% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C outcome as the market nears resolution. This positioning reflects second-warmest-on-record sea surface temperatures (21.08°C average) per Copernicus Marine Service, tempered by cooler land anomalies amid the transition from strong El Niño to neutral ENSO conditions, following March's warmer 1.31°C reading. Datasets like ERA5 show higher pre-industrial anomalies (~1.43°C), but NOAA's GLB.Ts+dSST series governs resolution. Scenarios challenging this include late-month data revisions shifting the value by >0.05°C or unexpected SST adjustments in the forthcoming official NOAA Global Climate Report, due mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$332,402Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary NOAA global land-ocean surface temperature data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901–2000 baseline, yielding trader consensus of 95.8% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C outcome as the market nears resolution. This positioning reflects second-warmest-on-record sea surface temperatures (21.08°C average) per Copernicus Marine Service, tempered by cooler land anomalies amid the transition from strong El Niño to neutral ENSO conditions, following March's warmer 1.31°C reading. Datasets like ERA5 show higher pre-industrial anomalies (~1.43°C), but NOAA's GLB.Ts+dSST series governs resolution. Scenarios challenging this include late-month data revisions shifting the value by >0.05°C or unexpected SST adjustments in the forthcoming official NOAA Global Climate Report, due mid-May.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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