Latest short-range forecasts from China's meteorological agencies and global models like ECMWF point to a Shenzhen high of 26-29°C on March 27, fueling the neck-and-neck odds among these outcomes as traders weigh model consensus against local variability. Historical March peaks average 24°C but recent days have trended warmer amid high pressure and reduced cloud cover, boosting probabilities for 27°C and 29°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breezes from the South China Sea, which could cap temperatures at 26°C in humid scenarios, versus prolonged solar insolation under clearer skies favoring 29°C. Ensemble uncertainty remains high until final 12-hour guidance releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
27°C 22%
26°C 20%
28°C 19%
29°C 19%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C
7%
25°C
12%
26°C
21%
27°C
22%
28°C
19%
29°C
19%
30°C
11%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 22%
26°C 20%
28°C 19%
29°C 19%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C
7%
25°C
12%
26°C
21%
27°C
22%
28°C
19%
29°C
19%
30°C
11%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range forecasts from China's meteorological agencies and global models like ECMWF point to a Shenzhen high of 26-29°C on March 27, fueling the neck-and-neck odds among these outcomes as traders weigh model consensus against local variability. Historical March peaks average 24°C but recent days have trended warmer amid high pressure and reduced cloud cover, boosting probabilities for 27°C and 29°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breezes from the South China Sea, which could cap temperatures at 26°C in humid scenarios, versus prolonged solar insolation under clearer skies favoring 29°C. Ensemble uncertainty remains high until final 12-hour guidance releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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