Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 40-45°F for Chicago's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on mid-40s peaks amid a weak ridge aloft. Leading bins differentiate primarily by subtle model spread in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover: 40-41°F odds reflect cooler Euro model runs with persistent stratus from Lake Michigan, while 44-45°F gains from warmer GFS perturbations allowing brief insolation. Historical March 27 highs at O'Hare average 44°F with a 8-10°F standard deviation, but recent Arctic air residuals cap upside risk. Watch 00Z model updates Thursday for front timing shifts that could sway the razor-thin margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
40-41°F 20%
42-43°F 19%
44-45°F 18%
38-39°F 17%
33°F or below
8%
34-35°F
9%
36-37°F
11%
38-39°F
17%
40-41°F
25%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
24%
46-47°F
5%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
9%
52°F or higher
10%
40-41°F 20%
42-43°F 19%
44-45°F 18%
38-39°F 17%
33°F or below
8%
34-35°F
9%
36-37°F
11%
38-39°F
17%
40-41°F
25%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
24%
46-47°F
5%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
9%
52°F or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 40-45°F for Chicago's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on mid-40s peaks amid a weak ridge aloft. Leading bins differentiate primarily by subtle model spread in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover: 40-41°F odds reflect cooler Euro model runs with persistent stratus from Lake Michigan, while 44-45°F gains from warmer GFS perturbations allowing brief insolation. Historical March 27 highs at O'Hare average 44°F with a 8-10°F standard deviation, but recent Arctic air residuals cap upside risk. Watch 00Z model updates Thursday for front timing shifts that could sway the razor-thin margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen