Fed Decision in September?

Politics·Fomc

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

13%

25 bps increase

88%

50+ bps increase

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

25 bps increase 88%

No change 13%

50+ bps increase <1%

25 bps decrease <1%

$188M Vol

Monthly

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

5% chance

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

Reuters

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

washingtonpost.com

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

WSJ

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

CNN

・

The crypto industry saw Trump as its savior. His crypto business just snagged a key bill

The New York Times

・

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

Reuters

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

washingtonpost.com

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

WSJ

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

CNN

・

The crypto industry saw Trump as its savior. His crypto business just snagged a key bill

The New York Times

・

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

Reuters

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

washingtonpost.com

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

WSJ

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

CNN

・

The crypto industry saw Trump as its savior. His crypto business just snagged a key bill

$21M Vol

Ends Jan 1, 2027·

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Politics·Iran

September 21

September 30

October 31

December 31

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Finds Escalation Is Fruitful Path to Leverage in War With U.S.

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

washingtonpost.com

・

Oil routes in peril as attacks shut Saudi pipeline and Houthis threaten key waterway

WSJ

・

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Finds Escalation Is Fruitful Path to Leverage in War With U.S.

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

washingtonpost.com

・

Oil routes in peril as attacks shut Saudi pipeline and Houthis threaten key waterway

WSJ

・

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Finds Escalation Is Fruitful Path to Leverage in War With U.S.

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

washingtonpost.com

・

Oil routes in peril as attacks shut Saudi pipeline and Houthis threaten key waterway

December 31 60.7%

October 31 34%

September 30 15%

September 21 5.1%

$29M Vol

Ends Jan 1, 2027·

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

18% chance

Congress Has Proposed Many Bills for A.I. Regulation. Lawmakers Have Enacted Few.

Reuters

・

OpenAI pushes for mandatory national AI safety rules

AP News

・

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI industry needs to give safety measures time to catch up

BBC

・

Trump says Kennedy Center to close as court rules his name must stay off building

washingtonpost.com

・

A barrage of cases hitting the Supreme Court is stirring midterm confusion

The New York Times

・

Congress Has Proposed Many Bills for A.I. Regulation. Lawmakers Have Enacted Few.

Reuters

・

OpenAI pushes for mandatory national AI safety rules

AP News

・

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI industry needs to give safety measures time to catch up

BBC

・

Trump says Kennedy Center to close as court rules his name must stay off building

washingtonpost.com

・

A barrage of cases hitting the Supreme Court is stirring midterm confusion

The New York Times

・

Congress Has Proposed Many Bills for A.I. Regulation. Lawmakers Have Enacted Few.

Reuters

・

OpenAI pushes for mandatory national AI safety rules

AP News

・

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI industry needs to give safety measures time to catch up

BBC

・

Trump says Kennedy Center to close as court rules his name must stay off building

washingtonpost.com

・

A barrage of cases hitting the Supreme Court is stirring midterm confusion

$122K Vol

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↑ $110

↓ $100

↓ $95

↓ $90

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

Energy

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

AP News

・

US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations

Reuters

・

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

Energy

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

AP News

・

US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations

Reuters

・

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

Energy

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

AP News

・

US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations

↓ $100 80.8%

↓ $95 56%

↑ $110 44%

↓ $90 32.9%

$5M Vol

Monthly

All markets

Fed Decision in September?

25 bps increase

88%

Yes88%No13%

No change

13%

Yes13%No88%

25 bps increase

88%

Yes88%No13%

No change

13%

Yes13%No88%

$188M Vol.

BTC Up or Down 5m

51%

Down

Live

·Bitcoin

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

$122K Vol.

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

AI / Artificial Intelligence

92%

Yes92%No9%

Good Day

91%

Yes91%No10%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

92%

Yes92%No9%

Good Day

91%

Yes91%No10%

$59K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 2026

28%

Yes28%No73%

October 31, 2026

18%

Yes18%No83%

December 31, 2026

28%

Yes28%No73%

October 31, 2026

18%

Yes18%No83%

$1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson

88%

Yes88%No13%

Ulf Kristersson

11%

Yes11%No90%

Magdalena Andersson

88%

Yes88%No13%

Ulf Kristersson

11%

Yes11%No90%

$8M Vol.

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke

66%

Yes66%No35%

CDU

27%

Yes27%No74%

Linke

66%

Yes66%No35%

CDU

27%

Yes27%No74%

$4M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party

59%

Yes59%No42%

Republican Party

43%

Yes43%No58%

Democratic Party

59%

Yes59%No42%

Republican Party

43%

Yes43%No58%

$5M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

chance

Yes

$21M Vol.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

AfD

79%

Yes79%No22%

SPD

22%

Yes22%No79%

AfD

79%

Yes79%No22%

SPD

22%

Yes22%No79%

$1M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.1%

72%

Yes72%No28%

5.2%

41%

Yes41%No59%

5.1%

72%

Yes72%No28%

5.2%

41%

Yes41%No59%

$445K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 31

22%

Yes22%No79%

October 31

16%

Yes16%No85%

December 31

22%

Yes22%No79%

October 31

16%

Yes16%No85%

$14M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)

56%

Yes56%No44%

Ken Paxton (R)

45%

Yes45%No56%

James Talarico (D)

56%

Yes56%No44%

Ken Paxton (R)

45%

Yes45%No56%

$1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No31%

November 30, 2027

66%

Yes66%No34%

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No31%

November 30, 2027

66%

Yes66%No34%

$8M Vol.

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic

96%

Yes96%No4%

Google

Yes2%No98%

Anthropic

96%

Yes96%No4%

Google

Yes2%No98%

$3M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 31

61%

Yes61%No39%

October 31

34%

Yes34%No67%

December 31

61%

Yes61%No39%

October 31

34%

Yes34%No67%

$29M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot

53%

Yes53%No47%

Benjamin Netanyahu

30%

Yes30%No71%

Gadi Eizenkot

53%

Yes53%No47%

Benjamin Netanyahu

30%

Yes30%No71%

$38M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep

57%

Yes57%No43%

R Senate, D House

33%

Yes33%No68%

Democrats Sweep

57%

Yes57%No43%

R Senate, D House

33%

Yes33%No68%

$12M Vol.

Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?

Maria Bartiromo

19%

Yes19%No82%

Scott Jennings

18%

Yes18%No82%

Maria Bartiromo

19%

Yes19%No82%

Scott Jennings

18%

Yes18%No82%

$435K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 31

27%

Yes27%No74%

October 31

13%

Yes13%No88%

December 31

27%

Yes27%No74%

October 31

13%

Yes13%No88%

$7M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

51%

Yes51%No49%

Marco Rubio

16%

Yes16%No84%

J.D. Vance

51%

Yes51%No49%

Marco Rubio

16%

Yes16%No84%

$704M Vol.

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)

76%

Yes76%No25%

New People (NL)

21%

Yes21%No79%

United Russia (ER)

76%

Yes76%No25%

New People (NL)

21%

Yes21%No79%

$29M Vol.

Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?

68,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

70,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

68,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

70,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$1M Vol.

·Bitcoin

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

18%

Yes18%No82%

Gavin Newsom

16%

Yes16%No84%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

18%

Yes18%No82%

Gavin Newsom

16%

Yes16%No84%

$1B Vol.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) card icon

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

100%

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen

36%

Yes36%No64%

Édouard Philippe

26%

Yes26%No75%

Marine Le Pen

36%

Yes36%No64%

Édouard Philippe

26%

Yes26%No75%

$134M Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

↑ 77,500

72%

Yes72%No28%

↓ 72,500

54%

Yes54%No47%

↑ 77,500

72%

Yes72%No28%

↓ 72,500

54%

Yes54%No47%

$7M Vol.

·Bitcoin

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↓ $100

81%

Yes81%No19%

↓ $95

56%

Yes56%No44%

↓ $100

81%

Yes81%No19%

↓ $95

56%

Yes56%No44%

$5M Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

↓ 70,000

69%

Yes69%No32%

↑ 85,000

55%

Yes55%No45%

↓ 70,000

69%

Yes69%No32%

↑ 85,000

55%

Yes55%No45%

$66M Vol.

·Bitcoin

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Barcelona

20%

Yes20%No81%

Bayern Munich

16%

Yes16%No85%

Barcelona

20%

Yes20%No81%

Bayern Munich

16%

Yes16%No85%

$34M Vol.

What price will Ethereum hit in September?

↓ 2,300

68%

Yes68%No33%

↑ 2,500

65%

Yes65%No36%

↓ 2,300

68%

Yes68%No33%

↑ 2,500

65%

Yes65%No36%

$3M Vol.

·Ethereum

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Los Angeles Rams

12%

Yes12%No89%

Buffalo Bills

11%

Yes11%No90%

Los Angeles Rams

12%

Yes12%No89%

Buffalo Bills

11%

Yes11%No90%

$56M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro

55%

Yes55%No45%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

45%

Yes45%No56%

Flávio Bolsonaro

55%

Yes55%No45%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

45%

Yes45%No56%

$150M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?

200-219

42%

Yes42%No59%

180-199

26%

Yes26%No75%

200-219

42%

Yes42%No59%

180-199

26%

Yes26%No75%

$1M Vol.

X. You

38%

A. Charaeva

63%

X. You

A. Charaeva

$375K Vol.

·WTA Tour

Fed rate hike in 2026?

96%

chance

Yes

$10M Vol.

Polymarket | The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

Featured markets

All markets

Fed Decision in September?

BTC Up or Down 5m

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Berlin State Election Winner

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Texas Senate Election Winner

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

Next French Presidential Election

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

What price will Ethereum hit in September?

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Brazil Presidential Election

Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?