Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and related shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea drove sharp volatility in WTI crude during September 2026, pushing prices above $100 per barrel mid-month with intraday highs near $107 before partial pullbacks. Supply disruptions and a tight distillate market supported the rally, while Saudi export recoveries and truce negotiations later capped gains, leaving WTI settling near $96 by late September amid mixed inventory builds. Market-implied odds reflected trader focus on these risk premiums over baseline demand forecasts, with resolution hinging on verified Pyth highs and lows for the active contract.