Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

7%

chance

$33m Vol.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

60%

Kevin Hassett

15%

Kevin Warsh

60%

Kevin Hassett

15%

$197m Vol.

Portugal Presidential Election card icon

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND)

77%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

14%

António José Seguro (IND)

77%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

14%

$111m Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? card icon

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

17%

chance

$9m Vol.

AS Monaco FC

54%

FC Lorient

16%

2H - 47

$4m Vol.

SV Werder Bremen

38%

Eintracht Frankfurt

36%

$3m Vol.

•BUNDESLIGA• 7:30 PM

Pelicans

40%

Pacers

61%

$1m Vol.

•NBA•Tomorrow 12:00 AM

Timberwolves

39%

Rockets

62%

$1m Vol.

•NBA•Tomorrow 2:30 AM

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? card icon

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

30%

chance

$3m Vol.

US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

January 18

6%

January 23

16%

January 18

6%

January 23

16%

$58m Vol.

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 16? card icon

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 16?

81%

Up

$128k Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

40%

chance

$3m Vol.

Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

$376m Vol.

Super Bowl Champion 2026

Seattle

24%

Los Angeles R

20%

Seattle

24%

Los Angeles R

20%

$676m Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...? card icon

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

January 31

10%

March 31

36%

January 31

10%

March 31

36%

$148k Vol.

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet? card icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Pam Bondi

27%

Kristi Noem

19%

Pam Bondi

27%

Kristi Noem

19%

$994k Vol.

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

23%

chance

$11m Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? card icon

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

4%

May 14

9%

March 31

4%

May 14

9%

$429k Vol.

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? card icon

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?

23%

chance

$2m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? card icon

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

42%

chance

$7m Vol.

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? card icon

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

11%

chance

$105k Vol.

Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price card icon

Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price

>$4m

98%

>$5m

98%

>$4m

98%

>$5m

98%

$5m Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets January 9 - January 16, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 9 - January 16, 2026?

520-539

<1%

540-559

100%

520-539

<1%

540-559

100%

$19m Vol.

Bitcoin above ___ on January 16? card icon

Bitcoin above ___ on January 16?

82,000

100%

84,000

100%

82,000

100%

84,000

100%

$5m Vol.

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