Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to no change in the Fed funds target rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50-3.75% amid sticky inflation and balanced risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from January, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, moderating 25 basis point cut odds to 13.5%; however, escalating geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, fueling stagflation fears and lifting 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.8%. The dot plot signals one cut in 2026 overall, but markets await April 10 CPI and April 28-29 FOMC for directional cues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo change 75%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 8.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,080,179 Vol.
$2,080,179 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
75%
25 bps increase
9%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 75%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 8.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,080,179 Vol.
$2,080,179 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$40,801 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$23,610 Vol.
14%
No change
$33,421 Vol.
75%
25 bps increase
$1,938,100 Vol.
9%
50+ bps increase
$44,247 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to no change in the Fed funds target rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50-3.75% amid sticky inflation and balanced risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from January, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, moderating 25 basis point cut odds to 13.5%; however, escalating geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, fueling stagflation fears and lifting 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.8%. The dot plot signals one cut in 2026 overall, but markets await April 10 CPI and April 28-29 FOMC for directional cues.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,080,179End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to no change in the Fed funds target rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50-3.75% amid sticky inflation and balanced risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from January, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, moderating 25 basis point cut odds to 13.5%; however, escalating geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, fueling stagflation fears and lifting 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.8%. The dot plot signals one cut in 2026 overall, but markets await April 10 CPI and April 28-29 FOMC for directional cues.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,080,179End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to no change in the Fed funds target rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50-3.75% amid sticky inflation and balanced risks. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from January, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, moderating 25 basis point cut odds to 13.5%; however, escalating geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, fueling stagflation fears and lifting 25 basis point hike probabilities to 8.8%. The dot plot signals one cut in 2026 overall, but markets await April 10 CPI and April 28-29 FOMC for directional cues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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