Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, driven by June's resilient nonfarm payrolls (206,000 jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.1%) offsetting softer CPI data (headline 3.0% year-over-year, core 3.3%). Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent path, downplaying near-term cuts amid persistent services inflation and balanced risks, tempering the 18% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Hawkish undertones from recent speeches by Daly and Jefferson have further solidified the pause, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.2% signaling steady policy expectations. Watch July 16 retail sales and July 17 industrial production for potential shifts ahead of the decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo change 72%
25 bps decrease 18%
25 bps increase 5.5%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$1,937,181 Vol.
$1,937,181 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
18%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
6%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps decrease 18%
25 bps increase 5.5%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$1,937,181 Vol.
$1,937,181 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$30,875 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$16,376 Vol.
18%
No change
$20,781 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$1,834,261 Vol.
6%
50+ bps increase
$35,574 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, driven by June's resilient nonfarm payrolls (206,000 jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.1%) offsetting softer CPI data (headline 3.0% year-over-year, core 3.3%). Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent path, downplaying near-term cuts amid persistent services inflation and balanced risks, tempering the 18% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Hawkish undertones from recent speeches by Daly and Jefferson have further solidified the pause, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.2% signaling steady policy expectations. Watch July 16 retail sales and July 17 industrial production for potential shifts ahead of the decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,937,181End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, driven by June's resilient nonfarm payrolls (206,000 jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.1%) offsetting softer CPI data (headline 3.0% year-over-year, core 3.3%). Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent path, downplaying near-term cuts amid persistent services inflation and balanced risks, tempering the 18% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Hawkish undertones from recent speeches by Daly and Jefferson have further solidified the pause, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.2% signaling steady policy expectations. Watch July 16 retail sales and July 17 industrial production for potential shifts ahead of the decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,937,181End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, driven by June's resilient nonfarm payrolls (206,000 jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.1%) offsetting softer CPI data (headline 3.0% year-over-year, core 3.3%). Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent path, downplaying near-term cuts amid persistent services inflation and balanced risks, tempering the 18% odds for a 25 basis point reduction. Hawkish undertones from recent speeches by Daly and Jefferson have further solidified the pause, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.2% signaling steady policy expectations. Watch July 16 retail sales and July 17 industrial production for potential shifts ahead of the decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions