Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's hawkish March 18 dot plot, which held the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection at 3.4%—implying just one 25 basis point cut this year, likely later. This stance persists despite February's softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, as core inflation remains above the 2% target and labor markets show resilience amid prior downward revisions. Markets have shifted modestly toward hikes (8.6% for 25 bps increase) following recent oil price spikes, with the next key catalysts being April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo change 78%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 8.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$2,587,948 Vol.
$2,587,948 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
12%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 8.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$2,587,948 Vol.
$2,587,948 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$44,699 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$28,120 Vol.
12%
No change
$43,783 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,422,067 Vol.
8%
50+ bps increase
$49,681 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's hawkish March 18 dot plot, which held the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection at 3.4%—implying just one 25 basis point cut this year, likely later. This stance persists despite February's softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, as core inflation remains above the 2% target and labor markets show resilience amid prior downward revisions. Markets have shifted modestly toward hikes (8.6% for 25 bps increase) following recent oil price spikes, with the next key catalysts being April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,587,948End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's hawkish March 18 dot plot, which held the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection at 3.4%—implying just one 25 basis point cut this year, likely later. This stance persists despite February's softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, as core inflation remains above the 2% target and labor markets show resilience amid prior downward revisions. Markets have shifted modestly toward hikes (8.6% for 25 bps increase) following recent oil price spikes, with the next key catalysts being April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,587,948End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's hawkish March 18 dot plot, which held the median end-2026 federal funds rate projection at 3.4%—implying just one 25 basis point cut this year, likely later. This stance persists despite February's softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, as core inflation remains above the 2% target and labor markets show resilience amid prior downward revisions. Markets have shifted modestly toward hikes (8.6% for 25 bps increase) following recent oil price spikes, with the next key catalysts being April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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