Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on monetary policy. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50–3.75% target range following the April meeting and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s communications aligning with data dependence, traders assign 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions and limited evidence of cooling inflation further anchor this consensus, as reflected in futures pricing and official minutes. The June 16–17 meeting and May CPI release due June 10 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens materially.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 3.5%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$7,008,988 Vol.
$7,008,988 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 3.5%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$7,008,988 Vol.
$7,008,988 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$866,903 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$698,176 Vol.
3%
Sin cambio
$885,497 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,693,136 Vol.
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$865,300 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on monetary policy. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50–3.75% target range following the April meeting and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s communications aligning with data dependence, traders assign 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions and limited evidence of cooling inflation further anchor this consensus, as reflected in futures pricing and official minutes. The June 16–17 meeting and May CPI release due June 10 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,008,988Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on monetary policy. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50–3.75% target range following the April meeting and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s communications aligning with data dependence, traders assign 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions and limited evidence of cooling inflation further anchor this consensus, as reflected in futures pricing and official minutes. The June 16–17 meeting and May CPI release due June 10 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$7,008,988Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on monetary policy. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50–3.75% target range following the April meeting and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s communications aligning with data dependence, traders assign 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Resilient labor market conditions and limited evidence of cooling inflation further anchor this consensus, as reflected in futures pricing and official minutes. The June 16–17 meeting and May CPI release due June 10 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens materially.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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