Republican control of both the House (220-215 majority) and Senate (53-47) after the 2024 elections forms the primary barrier to impeachment of President-elect Trump by June 30, 2025, driving trader consensus to a 96% implied probability of no action. Impeachment requires a House simple majority to pass articles, followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction and removal—thresholds unattainable without significant GOP defections, absent in recent history despite past controversies. No formal proceedings have advanced, and the brief post-inauguration window (January 20 onward) limits feasibility. Realistic shifts could stem from a major scandal eroding party unity or unexpected special election flips in the House, though traders price these as low-probability tail risks amid stable congressional math.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$175,851 交易量
$175,851 交易量
是
$175,851 交易量
$175,851 交易量
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 11:43 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of both the House (220-215 majority) and Senate (53-47) after the 2024 elections forms the primary barrier to impeachment of President-elect Trump by June 30, 2025, driving trader consensus to a 96% implied probability of no action. Impeachment requires a House simple majority to pass articles, followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction and removal—thresholds unattainable without significant GOP defections, absent in recent history despite past controversies. No formal proceedings have advanced, and the brief post-inauguration window (January 20 onward) limits feasibility. Realistic shifts could stem from a major scandal eroding party unity or unexpected special election flips in the House, though traders price these as low-probability tail risks amid stable congressional math.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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