Republican control of the House, with a majority sufficient to block any articles of impeachment against President Trump, forms the primary barrier driving the 86.5% "No" trader consensus through the end of 2026. No formal impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 939 have advanced amid unified GOP leadership under Speaker Johnson, despite recent Democratic rhetoric. Speculation spiked in March over Trump's low approval ratings tied to Iran airstrikes and a brief government shutdown threat, briefly lifting "Yes" odds on betting platforms, but House Democrats have signaled reluctance for premature action without midterm gains. The 2026 midterms represent the key upcoming event, where Democrats would need to flip the House and secure a two-thirds Senate supermajority for conviction—historical precedents show such reversals and convictions as rare for incumbents.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$648,144 交易量
$648,144 交易量
是
$648,144 交易量
$648,144 交易量
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republican control of the House, with a majority sufficient to block any articles of impeachment against President Trump, forms the primary barrier driving the 86.5% "No" trader consensus through the end of 2026. No formal impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 939 have advanced amid unified GOP leadership under Speaker Johnson, despite recent Democratic rhetoric. Speculation spiked in March over Trump's low approval ratings tied to Iran airstrikes and a brief government shutdown threat, briefly lifting "Yes" odds on betting platforms, but House Democrats have signaled reluctance for premature action without midterm gains. The 2026 midterms represent the key upcoming event, where Democrats would need to flip the House and secure a two-thirds Senate supermajority for conviction—historical precedents show such reversals and convictions as rare for incumbents.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题