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政治·主要

谁将赢得2026年民主党DC市长初选？

Market icon
政治·主要

谁将赢得2026年民主党DC市长初选？

Janeese Lewis George 54%

肯尼亚·麦克达菲 42%

加里·古德韦瑟 2.8%

菲尔·门德尔森 2.1%

Polymarket

$64,783 交易量

Janeese Lewis George 54%

肯尼亚·麦克达菲 42%

加里·古德韦瑟 2.8%

菲尔·门德尔森 2.1%

Polymarket

$64,783 交易量

Janeese Lewis George

$0 交易量

45%

肯尼亚·麦克达菲

$0 交易量

35%

加里·古德韦瑟

$16,104 交易量

3%

菲尔·门德尔森

$0 交易量

2%

布赖恩娜·K·纳多

$0 交易量

1%

罗伯特·怀特 Jr.

$0 交易量

1%

穆丽尔·鲍泽尔

$0 交易量

1%

布鲁克·平托

$14,772 交易量

1%

卡尔·拉辛

$0 交易量

1%

布赖恩·施瓦布

$0 交易量

1%

扎卡里·帕克

$0 交易量

<1%

克里斯蒂娜·亨德森

$33,908 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Traders view Ward 4 Councilmember Janeese Lewis George as the narrow frontrunner at 45% implied probability to win the 2026 Democratic D.C. mayoral primary, with Ward 5 Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie close behind at 35%, in a crowded field where incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser trails at 1%. This positioning stems from early jockeying among councilmembers amid Bowser's low approval on public safety and housing challenges, with no formal declarations announced. Absent major developments in the past 30 days, sentiment hinges on perceived viability from fundraising edges and ideological appeal—Lewis George's progressivism versus McDuffie's centrism—in a winner-take-all primary. Upcoming 2024 ward primaries will test their turnout strength before the June 2026 contest.

Traders view Ward 4 Councilmember Janeese Lewis George as the narrow frontrunner at 45% implied probability to win the 2026 Democratic D.C. mayoral primary, with Ward 5 Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie close behind at 35%, in a crowded field where incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser trails at 1%. This positioning stems from early jockeying among councilmembers amid Bowser's low approval on public safety and housing challenges, with no formal declarations announced. Absent major developments in the past 30 days, sentiment hinges on perceived viability from fundraising edges and ideological appeal—Lewis George's progressivism versus McDuffie's centrism—in a winner-take-all primary. Upcoming 2024 ward primaries will test their turnout strength before the June 2026 contest.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Traders view Ward 4 Councilmember Janeese Lewis George as the narrow frontrunner at 45% implied probability to win the 2026 Democratic D.C. mayoral primary, with Ward 5 Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie close behind at 35%, in a crowded field where incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser trails at 1%. This positioning stems from early jockeying among councilmembers amid Bowser's low approval on public safety and housing challenges, with no formal declarations announced. Absent major developments in the past 30 days, sentiment hinges on perceived viability from fundraising edges and ideological appeal—Lewis George's progressivism versus McDuffie's centrism—in a winner-take-all primary. Upcoming 2024 ward primaries will test their turnout strength before the June 2026 contest.

Traders view Ward 4 Councilmember Janeese Lewis George as the narrow frontrunner at 45% implied probability to win the 2026 Democratic D.C. mayoral primary, with Ward 5 Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie close behind at 35%, in a crowded field where incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser trails at 1%. This positioning stems from early jockeying among councilmembers amid Bowser's low approval on public safety and housing challenges, with no formal declarations announced. Absent major developments in the past 30 days, sentiment hinges on perceived viability from fundraising edges and ideological appeal—Lewis George's progressivism versus McDuffie's centrism—in a winner-take-all primary. Upcoming 2024 ward primaries will test their turnout strength before the June 2026 contest.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"谁将赢得2026年民主党DC市长初选？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 12 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Janeese Lewis George"，概率为 45%，其次是"肯尼亚·麦克达菲"，概率为 35%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 45¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 45%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"谁将赢得2026年民主党DC市长初选？"已产生 $64.8K 的总交易量（自Nov 25, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"谁将赢得2026年民主党DC市长初选？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 12 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"谁将赢得2026年民主党DC市长初选？"的当前领先者是"Janeese Lewis George"，概率为 45%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 45%。紧随其后的结果是"肯尼亚·麦克达菲"，概率为 35%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"谁将赢得2026年民主党DC市长初选？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。