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政治·主要

谁将从加利福尼亚州州长初选中晋升？

Market icon
政治·主要

谁将从加利福尼亚州州长初选中晋升？

$284,592 交易量

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$284,592 交易量

Polymarket

埃里克·斯沃威尔

$10,970 交易量

63%

史蒂夫·希尔顿

$4,123 交易量

60%

伊莱恩·库洛蒂

$0 交易量

46%

查德·比安科

$0 交易量

36%

汤姆·斯泰尔

$17,297 交易量

27%

马特·马汉

$9,381 交易量

20%

凯蒂·波特

$0 交易量

21%

哈维尔·贝塞拉

$2,973 交易量

9%

托尼·瑟蒙德

$966 交易量

6%

贝蒂·易

$2,629 交易量

6%

大卫·西伦

$750 交易量

5%

Ché Ahn

$14,574 交易量

5%

伊桑·阿加瓦尔

$2,470 交易量

5%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 交易量

4%

吉米·帕克

$0 交易量

4%

安东尼奥·维拉莱戈萨

$11,452 交易量

4%

迪兰·科尔伯特

$11,135 交易量

3%

丹尼尔·梅库里

$8,309 交易量

3%

妮琪·米娜

$0 交易量

3%

瑞安·蒂尔曼

$1,012 交易量

3%

德里克·格雷斯蒂

$1,039 交易量

3%

Leo Zacky

$0 交易量

2%

大卫·塞尔帕

$0 交易量

2%

贾文·艾伦

$0 交易量

12%

伦纳德·杰克逊

$0 交易量

2%

Raji Rab

$0 交易量

2%

卡罗丽娜·布勒

$0 交易量

2%

凯尔·兰福德

$0 交易量

2%

尼古拉斯·汤普森

$0 交易量

2%

Butch Ware

$0 交易量

2%

Thunder Parley

$0 交易量

2%

布兰登·琼斯

$33,393 交易量

2%

佐尔坦·伊斯特万

$11,334 交易量

2%

拉姆齐·鲁宾逊

$0 交易量

1%

伊恩·卡尔德隆

$103,033 交易量

1%

索菲亚·布林克

$37,751 交易量

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, 2026, trader consensus reflects a splintered Democratic field of eight candidates, enabling Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco to emerge as top contenders amid recent polling. An EVITARUS survey of 2,000 likely voters (March 12-17) showed Hilton leading at 16%, Bianco at 14%, with Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer tied at 10% each and 24% undecided; earlier Emerson polling (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%. The candidate field finalized March 6 after deadlines, with recent debates highlighting policy divides on affordability and public safety that could consolidate support or exacerbate the split before early voting begins.

In California's nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, 2026, trader consensus reflects a splintered Democratic field of eight candidates, enabling Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco to emerge as top contenders amid recent polling. An EVITARUS survey of 2,000 likely voters (March 12-17) showed Hilton leading at 16%, Bianco at 14%, with Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer tied at 10% each and 24% undecided; earlier Emerson polling (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%. The candidate field finalized March 6 after deadlines, with recent debates highlighting policy divides on affordability and public safety that could consolidate support or exacerbate the split before early voting begins.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, 2026, trader consensus reflects a splintered Democratic field of eight candidates, enabling Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco to emerge as top contenders amid recent polling. An EVITARUS survey of 2,000 likely voters (March 12-17) showed Hilton leading at 16%, Bianco at 14%, with Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer tied at 10% each and 24% undecided; earlier Emerson polling (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%. The candidate field finalized March 6 after deadlines, with recent debates highlighting policy divides on affordability and public safety that could consolidate support or exacerbate the split before early voting begins.

In California's nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, 2026, trader consensus reflects a splintered Democratic field of eight candidates, enabling Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco to emerge as top contenders amid recent polling. An EVITARUS survey of 2,000 likely voters (March 12-17) showed Hilton leading at 16%, Bianco at 14%, with Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer tied at 10% each and 24% undecided; earlier Emerson polling (March 7-9) had Swalwell ahead at 17%. The candidate field finalized March 6 after deadlines, with recent debates highlighting policy divides on affordability and public safety that could consolidate support or exacerbate the split before early voting begins.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"谁将从加利福尼亚州州长初选中晋升？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 36 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"埃里克·斯沃威尔"，概率为 63%，其次是"史蒂夫·希尔顿"，概率为 60%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 63¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 63%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"谁将从加利福尼亚州州长初选中晋升？"已产生 $284.6K 的总交易量（自Dec 4, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"谁将从加利福尼亚州州长初选中晋升？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 36 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"谁将从加利福尼亚州州长初选中晋升？"的当前领先者是"埃里克·斯沃威尔"，概率为 63%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 63%。紧随其后的结果是"史蒂夫·希尔顿"，概率为 60%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"谁将从加利福尼亚州州长初选中晋升？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。