Trader consensus gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to capture Senate control in the November 2026 midterms, up from a GOP-dominant 80-20 edge earlier this year, driven by recent generic ballot leads like YouGov's 45-39% Democratic advantage and backlash from escalating Iran tensions weighing on Republican momentum. Republicans defend 22 seats against Democrats' 13 in a map tilted toward the GOP, including vulnerable holds like Maine and battlegrounds such as North Carolina and Texas following March primaries, but low party favorability—Democrats at 28%, Republicans at 32% per CNN—keeps the race deadlocked amid midterm headwinds for the president's party. Key developments like further retirements, economic data, or primary upsets in swing states could tip the balance before election night.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,506,509 交易量
$1,506,509 交易量
2026-11-03
赚 4% 收益
分组项标题：民主党
52%
共和党
49%
$1,506,509 交易量
$1,506,509 交易量
2026-11-03
赚 4% 收益
分组项标题：民主党
$764,164 交易量
52%
共和党
$742,361 交易量
49%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to capture Senate control in the November 2026 midterms, up from a GOP-dominant 80-20 edge earlier this year, driven by recent generic ballot leads like YouGov's 45-39% Democratic advantage and backlash from escalating Iran tensions weighing on Republican momentum. Republicans defend 22 seats against Democrats' 13 in a map tilted toward the GOP, including vulnerable holds like Maine and battlegrounds such as North Carolina and Texas following March primaries, but low party favorability—Democrats at 28%, Republicans at 32% per CNN—keeps the race deadlocked amid midterm headwinds for the president's party. Key developments like further retirements, economic data, or primary upsets in swing states could tip the balance before election night.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ET
交易量
$1,506,509结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to capture Senate control in the November 2026 midterms, up from a GOP-dominant 80-20 edge earlier this year, driven by recent generic ballot leads like YouGov's 45-39% Democratic advantage and backlash from escalating Iran tensions weighing on Republican momentum. Republicans defend 22 seats against Democrats' 13 in a map tilted toward the GOP, including vulnerable holds like Maine and battlegrounds such as North Carolina and Texas following March primaries, but low party favorability—Democrats at 28%, Republicans at 32% per CNN—keeps the race deadlocked amid midterm headwinds for the president's party. Key developments like further retirements, economic data, or primary upsets in swing states could tip the balance before election night.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$1,506,509结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to capture Senate control in the November 2026 midterms, up from a GOP-dominant 80-20 edge earlier this year, driven by recent generic ballot leads like YouGov's 45-39% Democratic advantage and backlash from escalating Iran tensions weighing on Republican momentum. Republicans defend 22 seats against Democrats' 13 in a map tilted toward the GOP, including vulnerable holds like Maine and battlegrounds such as North Carolina and Texas following March primaries, but low party favorability—Democrats at 28%, Republicans at 32% per CNN—keeps the race deadlocked amid midterm headwinds for the president's party. Key developments like further retirements, economic data, or primary upsets in swing states could tip the balance before election night.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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