Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's dominant 82% victory in the March 3, 2026, Republican primary, coupled with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic nominee Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 7-8 points (49% Abbott vs. 41-42% Hinojosa), drives trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a Republican win. Texas' status as a GOP stronghold—no Democratic governor since 1994—bolsters this edge, amplified by Abbott's $105 million cash advantage and safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Hinojosa's 60% Democratic primary win signals base consolidation but faces steep path-to-victory amid low Democratic turnout historically. Upcoming early voting starts October 19, with general election November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
80%
民主党
21%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,673 交易量
80%
民主党
$3,392 交易量
21%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's dominant 82% victory in the March 3, 2026, Republican primary, coupled with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic nominee Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 7-8 points (49% Abbott vs. 41-42% Hinojosa), drives trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a Republican win. Texas' status as a GOP stronghold—no Democratic governor since 1994—bolsters this edge, amplified by Abbott's $105 million cash advantage and safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Hinojosa's 60% Democratic primary win signals base consolidation but faces steep path-to-victory amid low Democratic turnout historically. Upcoming early voting starts October 19, with general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$6,065结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's dominant 82% victory in the March 3, 2026, Republican primary, coupled with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic nominee Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 7-8 points (49% Abbott vs. 41-42% Hinojosa), drives trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a Republican win. Texas' status as a GOP stronghold—no Democratic governor since 1994—bolsters this edge, amplified by Abbott's $105 million cash advantage and safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Hinojosa's 60% Democratic primary win signals base consolidation but faces steep path-to-victory amid low Democratic turnout historically. Upcoming early voting starts October 19, with general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$6,065结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's dominant 82% victory in the March 3, 2026, Republican primary, coupled with recent polling averages showing him ahead of Democratic nominee Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 7-8 points (49% Abbott vs. 41-42% Hinojosa), drives trader consensus to an 80% implied probability for a Republican win. Texas' status as a GOP stronghold—no Democratic governor since 1994—bolsters this edge, amplified by Abbott's $105 million cash advantage and safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Hinojosa's 60% Democratic primary win signals base consolidation but faces steep path-to-victory amid low Democratic turnout historically. Upcoming early voting starts October 19, with general election November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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