Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, with 70.5% implied probability reflecting its institutional dominance, control of single-member districts (half of 450 seats), and consistent poll leads around 38-56% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People's 21.1% positioning stems from its recent surge to second place at 13-14% in VCIOM's March 22 poll—the first time overtaking LDPR (13.7%) and KPRF (12.5%)—driven by appeals to younger voters amid economic pressures like rising food prices eroding United Russia's support. Kremlin strategies include propaganda boosts for party initiatives and a hawkish candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev, while high abstention rates add uncertainty ahead of primaries and three-day voting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于统一俄罗斯党（ER） 71%
新人民党（NL） 21.1%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR） 5.8%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,392,865 交易量
$4,392,865 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
71%
新人民党（NL）
21%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
6%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
1%
公正俄罗斯——为了真理党（SRZP）
1%
罗迪纳
<1%
公民平台党（GP）
<1%
统一俄罗斯党（ER） 71%
新人民党（NL） 21.1%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR） 5.8%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,392,865 交易量
$4,392,865 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
$1,215,726 交易量
71%
新人民党（NL）
$276,708 交易量
21%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
$2,034,112 交易量
6%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
$254,599 交易量
1%
公正俄罗斯——为了真理党（SRZP）
$226,425 交易量
1%
罗迪纳
$195,922 交易量
<1%
公民平台党（GP）
$189,372 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, with 70.5% implied probability reflecting its institutional dominance, control of single-member districts (half of 450 seats), and consistent poll leads around 38-56% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People's 21.1% positioning stems from its recent surge to second place at 13-14% in VCIOM's March 22 poll—the first time overtaking LDPR (13.7%) and KPRF (12.5%)—driven by appeals to younger voters amid economic pressures like rising food prices eroding United Russia's support. Kremlin strategies include propaganda boosts for party initiatives and a hawkish candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev, while high abstention rates add uncertainty ahead of primaries and three-day voting.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
交易量
$4,392,865结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, with 70.5% implied probability reflecting its institutional dominance, control of single-member districts (half of 450 seats), and consistent poll leads around 38-56% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People's 21.1% positioning stems from its recent surge to second place at 13-14% in VCIOM's March 22 poll—the first time overtaking LDPR (13.7%) and KPRF (12.5%)—driven by appeals to younger voters amid economic pressures like rising food prices eroding United Russia's support. Kremlin strategies include propaganda boosts for party initiatives and a hawkish candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev, while high abstention rates add uncertainty ahead of primaries and three-day voting.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$4,392,865结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to claim the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, with 70.5% implied probability reflecting its institutional dominance, control of single-member districts (half of 450 seats), and consistent poll leads around 38-56% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People's 21.1% positioning stems from its recent surge to second place at 13-14% in VCIOM's March 22 poll—the first time overtaking LDPR (13.7%) and KPRF (12.5%)—driven by appeals to younger voters amid economic pressures like rising food prices eroding United Russia's support. Kremlin strategies include propaganda boosts for party initiatives and a hawkish candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev, while high abstention rates add uncertainty ahead of primaries and three-day voting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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