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政治·荷兰

哪个联盟将组成下一届荷兰政府？

Market icon
政治·荷兰

哪个联盟将组成下一届荷兰政府？

分组项标题：VVD + CDA + D66 100.0%

PVV + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66 <1%

Polymarket

$70,359,348 交易量

分组项标题：VVD + CDA + D66 100.0%

PVV + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66 <1%

Polymarket

$70,359,348 交易量

PVV + JA21

$1,594,757 交易量

否

PVV + VVD + JA21

$1,150,612 交易量

否

PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66

$1,194,469 交易量

否

PVV + VVD

$3,261,470 交易量

否

PVV + CDA

$3,311,752 交易量

否

分组项标题：PVV + VVD + D66

$6,830,276 交易量

否

PVV + CDA + JA21

$2,386,869 交易量

否

PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21

$2,576,739 交易量

否

分组项标题： PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66

$1,994,279 交易量

否

PVV + VVD + CDA

$1,906,464 交易量

否

PVV + CDA + D66

$2,845,799 交易量

否

PVV + VVD + CDA + D66

$1,256,970 交易量

否

VVD + JA21

$685,772 交易量

否

分组项标题：VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66

$993,780 交易量

否

VVD + D66

$617,171 交易量

否

分组项标题：VVD + CDA + D66

$1,208,010 交易量

是

GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA

$368,853 交易量

否

PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66

$5,894,192 交易量

否

GL/PvdA + D66

$122,972 交易量

否

其他

$1,091,369 交易量

否

分组项标题：VVD + CDA + JA21

$14,367,772 交易量

否

VVD + CDA

$4,104,643 交易量

否

CDA + D66

$507,273 交易量

否

GL/PvdA + VVD

$572,742 交易量

否

分组项标题：GL/PvdA + VVD + D66

$1,188,766 交易量

否

PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA

$4,282,070 交易量

否

GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA

$841,322 交易量

否

GL/PvdA + CDA

$1,268,920 交易量

否

GL/工党

$1,262,591 交易量

否

到10月31日为止尚未形成联盟

$669,634 交易量

否

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”.

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.
交易量
$70,359,348
结束日期
Oct 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Oct 15, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election. If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. For example: If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”. If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No". If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

已提议结果: 是

无争议

最终结果: 是

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"哪个联盟将组成下一届荷兰政府？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 30 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"分组项标题：VVD + CDA + D66"，概率为 100%，其次是"PVV + JA21"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"哪个联盟将组成下一届荷兰政府？"已产生 $70.4 million 的总交易量（自Oct 15, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哪个联盟将组成下一届荷兰政府？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 30 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哪个联盟将组成下一届荷兰政府？"的当前领先者是"分组项标题：VVD + CDA + D66"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"PVV + JA21"，概率为 0%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哪个联盟将组成下一届荷兰政府？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。