Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$511,599 交易量
迪莫纳（希蒙·佩雷斯内盖夫核研究中心）
否
鲁韦斯炼油厂
是
哈利法塔
否
盖瓦尔油田
否
萨法尼亚油田
否
阿布盖格油气处理设施
否
米纳艾哈迈迪炼油厂
是
祖尔炼油厂
否
Leviathan Field
No
Khurais Field
No
拉斯塔努拉
否
East–West Pipeline
No
哈布尚油田/加工综合体
否
Ras Laffan Industrial City
No
$511,599 交易量
迪莫纳（希蒙·佩雷斯内盖夫核研究中心）
$273,213 交易量
否
鲁韦斯炼油厂
$0 交易量
是
哈利法塔
$2,090 交易量
否
盖瓦尔油田
$36,045 交易量
否
萨法尼亚油田
$44,864 交易量
否
阿布盖格油气处理设施
$46,287 交易量
否
米纳艾哈迈迪炼油厂
$0 交易量
是
祖尔炼油厂
$80,327 交易量
否
Leviathan Field
$1,484 交易量
No
Khurais Field
$5,035 交易量
No
拉斯塔努拉
$5,504 交易量
否
East–West Pipeline
$2,036 交易量
No
哈布尚油田/加工综合体
$2,452 交易量
否
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$12,262 交易量
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
交易量
$511,599市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
交易量
$511,599市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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