The open-seat race in Washington's 4th Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse in December 2025, favors the Republican Party at 83% trader consensus due to the district's strong R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Newhouse's 2024 win by six points. Multiple Republican candidates, including state Sen. Matt Boehnke, John Hughs, Amanda McKinney, Wesley Meier, and Jerrod Sessler, have entered the top-two primary on August 4, 2026, likely advancing two Republicans to the November general against Democrat John Duresky and independent Devin Poore. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect these fundamentals, with no polling yet to challenge the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of the May 8 filing deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$19,634 交易量
$19,634 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
83%
民主党
18%
$19,634 交易量
$19,634 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$10,517 交易量
83%
民主党
$9,117 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat race in Washington's 4th Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse in December 2025, favors the Republican Party at 83% trader consensus due to the district's strong R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Newhouse's 2024 win by six points. Multiple Republican candidates, including state Sen. Matt Boehnke, John Hughs, Amanda McKinney, Wesley Meier, and Jerrod Sessler, have entered the top-two primary on August 4, 2026, likely advancing two Republicans to the November general against Democrat John Duresky and independent Devin Poore. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect these fundamentals, with no polling yet to challenge the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of the May 8 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$19,634结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat race in Washington's 4th Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse in December 2025, favors the Republican Party at 83% trader consensus due to the district's strong R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Newhouse's 2024 win by six points. Multiple Republican candidates, including state Sen. Matt Boehnke, John Hughs, Amanda McKinney, Wesley Meier, and Jerrod Sessler, have entered the top-two primary on August 4, 2026, likely advancing two Republicans to the November general against Democrat John Duresky and independent Devin Poore. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect these fundamentals, with no polling yet to challenge the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of the May 8 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,634结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open-seat race in Washington's 4th Congressional District, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse in December 2025, favors the Republican Party at 83% trader consensus due to the district's strong R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Newhouse's 2024 win by six points. Multiple Republican candidates, including state Sen. Matt Boehnke, John Hughs, Amanda McKinney, Wesley Meier, and Jerrod Sessler, have entered the top-two primary on August 4, 2026, likely advancing two Republicans to the November general against Democrat John Duresky and independent Devin Poore. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect these fundamentals, with no polling yet to challenge the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of the May 8 filing deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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