Iran's rejection last week of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—delivered via Pakistani mediators and demanding nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Lebanese de-escalation—has anchored trader consensus against a near-term US-Iran truce amid over 11,000 ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states. The war, triggered February 28 by strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (succeeded by Mojtaba Khamenei), features Strait closure disrupting oil flows and recent Houthi missile attacks on Israel, with 2,500 US Marines newly deployed signaling escalation risks. Pakistan-hosted regional talks on March 29 yielded no breakthrough, though indirect diplomacy persists via Oman and Egypt; a US ground push or proxy intensification could further delay resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$61,621,147 交易量
3月31日
2%
4月7日
8%
4月15日
17%
4月30日
32%
5月31日
48%
6月30日
59%
12月31日
75%
$61,621,147 交易量
3月31日
$38,907,028 交易量
2%
4月7日
$1,412,710 交易量
8%
4月15日
$5,999,290 交易量
17%
4月30日
$6,693,454 交易量
32%
5月31日
$2,260,501 交易量
48%
6月30日
$2,347,445 交易量
59%
12月31日
$513,077 交易量
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Iran's rejection last week of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—delivered via Pakistani mediators and demanding nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Lebanese de-escalation—has anchored trader consensus against a near-term US-Iran truce amid over 11,000 ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states. The war, triggered February 28 by strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (succeeded by Mojtaba Khamenei), features Strait closure disrupting oil flows and recent Houthi missile attacks on Israel, with 2,500 US Marines newly deployed signaling escalation risks. Pakistan-hosted regional talks on March 29 yielded no breakthrough, though indirect diplomacy persists via Oman and Egypt; a US ground push or proxy intensification could further delay resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
交易量
$61,621,147市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Iran's rejection last week of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—delivered via Pakistani mediators and demanding nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Lebanese de-escalation—has anchored trader consensus against a near-term US-Iran truce amid over 11,000 ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states. The war, triggered February 28 by strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (succeeded by Mojtaba Khamenei), features Strait closure disrupting oil flows and recent Houthi missile attacks on Israel, with 2,500 US Marines newly deployed signaling escalation risks. Pakistan-hosted regional talks on March 29 yielded no breakthrough, though indirect diplomacy persists via Oman and Egypt; a US ground push or proxy intensification could further delay resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$61,621,147市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Iran's rejection last week of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—delivered via Pakistani mediators and demanding nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Lebanese de-escalation—has anchored trader consensus against a near-term US-Iran truce amid over 11,000 ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states. The war, triggered February 28 by strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (succeeded by Mojtaba Khamenei), features Strait closure disrupting oil flows and recent Houthi missile attacks on Israel, with 2,500 US Marines newly deployed signaling escalation risks. Pakistan-hosted regional talks on March 29 yielded no breakthrough, though indirect diplomacy persists via Oman and Egypt; a US ground push or proxy intensification could further delay resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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