The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$61,971,315 交易量
3月31日
1%
4月7日
9%
4月15日
17%
4月30日
32%
5月31日
48%
6月30日
61%
12月31日
74%
$61,971,315 交易量
3月31日
$39,103,838 交易量
1%
4月7日
$1,467,485 交易量
9%
4月15日
$6,033,933 交易量
17%
4月30日
$6,712,700 交易量
32%
5月31日
$2,271,802 交易量
48%
6月30日
$2,354,941 交易量
61%
12月31日
$532,995 交易量
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
交易量
$61,971,315市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$61,971,315市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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