Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$83,670,568 交易量
2026-04-07
4月7日
2%
4月15日
7%
4月30日
22%
5月31日
41%
6月30日
56%
12月31日
71%
$83,670,568 交易量
4月7日
$7,268,408 交易量
2%
4月15日
$11,688,707 交易量
7%
4月30日
$9,724,753 交易量
22%
5月31日
$3,285,209 交易量
41%
6月30日
$2,884,223 交易量
56%
12月31日
$951,943 交易量
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$83,670,568市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$83,670,568市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military targets—highlighted by recent B-52 deep strike missions—President Trump stated on April 2 that any ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Tehran's denials of seeking talks. Iran dismissed a US 15-point proposal via Pakistani intermediaries in late March as "maximalist," countering with demands for reparations, while the US paused energy plant attacks until April 6. Backchannel diplomacy persists amid proxy conflicts and sanctions disputes, but official rejections and ongoing operations drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions. Key watches include Trump's national address and a UN Security Council vote on Hormuz naval action.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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