Trader consensus favors no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 at 64% implied probability, driven by the absence of recent escalatory military actions, diplomatic breakdowns, or provocative incidents between the two nations. Over the past 30 days, US focus has centered on migration enforcement via Coast Guard interdictions of Cuban vessels rather than military posturing, while Cuba contends with severe blackouts and economic collapse without triggering US intervention. Lingering concerns over Russian troop deployments to Cuba and alleged Chinese intelligence facilities persist but have prompted sanctions and diplomatic protests, not armed confrontation. Broader US foreign policy priorities—China tensions, Ukraine aid, Middle East diplomacy—further diminish near-term clash risks, though post-inauguration policy shifts could alter dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$56,541 交易量
$56,541 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$56,541 交易量
$56,541 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 at 64% implied probability, driven by the absence of recent escalatory military actions, diplomatic breakdowns, or provocative incidents between the two nations. Over the past 30 days, US focus has centered on migration enforcement via Coast Guard interdictions of Cuban vessels rather than military posturing, while Cuba contends with severe blackouts and economic collapse without triggering US intervention. Lingering concerns over Russian troop deployments to Cuba and alleged Chinese intelligence facilities persist but have prompted sanctions and diplomatic protests, not armed confrontation. Broader US foreign policy priorities—China tensions, Ukraine aid, Middle East diplomacy—further diminish near-term clash risks, though post-inauguration policy shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$56,541结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 at 64% implied probability, driven by the absence of recent escalatory military actions, diplomatic breakdowns, or provocative incidents between the two nations. Over the past 30 days, US focus has centered on migration enforcement via Coast Guard interdictions of Cuban vessels rather than military posturing, while Cuba contends with severe blackouts and economic collapse without triggering US intervention. Lingering concerns over Russian troop deployments to Cuba and alleged Chinese intelligence facilities persist but have prompted sanctions and diplomatic protests, not armed confrontation. Broader US foreign policy priorities—China tensions, Ukraine aid, Middle East diplomacy—further diminish near-term clash risks, though post-inauguration policy shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$56,541结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no US-Cuba military clash in 2026 at 64% implied probability, driven by the absence of recent escalatory military actions, diplomatic breakdowns, or provocative incidents between the two nations. Over the past 30 days, US focus has centered on migration enforcement via Coast Guard interdictions of Cuban vessels rather than military posturing, while Cuba contends with severe blackouts and economic collapse without triggering US intervention. Lingering concerns over Russian troop deployments to Cuba and alleged Chinese intelligence facilities persist but have prompted sanctions and diplomatic protests, not armed confrontation. Broader US foreign policy priorities—China tensions, Ukraine aid, Middle East diplomacy—further diminish near-term clash risks, though post-inauguration policy shifts could alter dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题