Trader consensus prices the US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 in a tight contest between $800–900 billion (35%) and $900 billion–$1 trillion (26.5%), reflecting persistent uncertainty one year into the Trump administration's tariff regime, including "Liberation Day" measures aimed at curbing imports. February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than economists' $59–62 billion forecast—following January's sharp narrowing to $54.5 billion, with year-to-date figures 55% below 2025's pace amid reduced China imports but steady consumer demand fueling goods shortfalls. Mixed tariff impacts, robust exports in energy and services, and a strong dollar keep outcomes clustered near recent $900 billion annual levels. Escalating retaliatory tariffs, recession signals lowering import demand, Federal Reserve policy shifts, or USTR trade negotiations could drive separation before year-end BEA resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$17,416 交易量
$17,416 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
9%
5000亿–6000亿
6%
6000亿–7000亿美元
8%
7000亿–8000亿
12%
8,000亿–9,000亿
35%
9000亿–1万亿
27%
1万亿–1.1万亿
12%
1.1万亿美元以上
13%
$17,416 交易量
$17,416 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
$16,379 交易量
9%
5000亿–6000亿
$0 交易量
6%
6000亿–7000亿美元
$0 交易量
8%
7000亿–8000亿
$0 交易量
12%
8,000亿–9,000亿
$0 交易量
35%
9000亿–1万亿
$635 交易量
27%
1万亿–1.1万亿
$0 交易量
12%
1.1万亿美元以上
$402 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus prices the US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 in a tight contest between $800–900 billion (35%) and $900 billion–$1 trillion (26.5%), reflecting persistent uncertainty one year into the Trump administration's tariff regime, including "Liberation Day" measures aimed at curbing imports. February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than economists' $59–62 billion forecast—following January's sharp narrowing to $54.5 billion, with year-to-date figures 55% below 2025's pace amid reduced China imports but steady consumer demand fueling goods shortfalls. Mixed tariff impacts, robust exports in energy and services, and a strong dollar keep outcomes clustered near recent $900 billion annual levels. Escalating retaliatory tariffs, recession signals lowering import demand, Federal Reserve policy shifts, or USTR trade negotiations could drive separation before year-end BEA resolution.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$17,416结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus prices the US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 in a tight contest between $800–900 billion (35%) and $900 billion–$1 trillion (26.5%), reflecting persistent uncertainty one year into the Trump administration's tariff regime, including "Liberation Day" measures aimed at curbing imports. February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than economists' $59–62 billion forecast—following January's sharp narrowing to $54.5 billion, with year-to-date figures 55% below 2025's pace amid reduced China imports but steady consumer demand fueling goods shortfalls. Mixed tariff impacts, robust exports in energy and services, and a strong dollar keep outcomes clustered near recent $900 billion annual levels. Escalating retaliatory tariffs, recession signals lowering import demand, Federal Reserve policy shifts, or USTR trade negotiations could drive separation before year-end BEA resolution.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$17,416结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices the US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 in a tight contest between $800–900 billion (35%) and $900 billion–$1 trillion (26.5%), reflecting persistent uncertainty one year into the Trump administration's tariff regime, including "Liberation Day" measures aimed at curbing imports. February's deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than economists' $59–62 billion forecast—following January's sharp narrowing to $54.5 billion, with year-to-date figures 55% below 2025's pace amid reduced China imports but steady consumer demand fueling goods shortfalls. Mixed tariff impacts, robust exports in energy and services, and a strong dollar keep outcomes clustered near recent $900 billion annual levels. Escalating retaliatory tariffs, recession signals lowering import demand, Federal Reserve policy shifts, or USTR trade negotiations could drive separation before year-end BEA resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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