Tight cattle supplies, with the U.S. herd at its lowest level in 75 years, remain the dominant driver of elevated ground beef prices amid resilient consumer demand. Drought conditions, elevated feed costs, and prior herd reductions have constrained domestic production, with USDA projecting an 11-12% rise in beef and veal prices for 2026 and farm-level cattle prices up 11%. Wholesale beef prices climbed 14.8% year-over-year through April 2026, while recent retail ground beef averaged near $6.70 per pound. Increased imports of lean trimmings, including tariff-free volumes from Argentina, and steady per-capita consumption near 57 pounds are supporting prices, though gradual herd rebuilding could moderate gains later in the year. Key catalysts ahead include weather impacts on feed and any shifts in monetary policy affecting input costs.