Tight U.S. cattle inventories, at their lowest levels in decades following prolonged drought and elevated feed costs, continue to constrain beef supplies and support elevated ground beef prices into 2026. Retail ground beef has already reached record levels near $6.90 per pound amid 12-19% year-over-year gains, with USDA projecting further increases of over 10%—potentially up to 18%—for the year as fed cattle slaughter declines and per-capita supplies remain constrained. Strong consumer demand for beef, compounded by reduced imports due to tariffs and disease-related disruptions from Mexico, reinforces upward pressure on wholesale and retail values. Markets price in limited near-term relief, as herd rebuilding requires multiple years, though modest expansion signals and seasonal demand patterns could moderate gains later in the year.