Tight U.S. cattle supplies, at the lowest levels since the 1960s due to multi-year drought and elevated feed costs, continue to constrain domestic beef production, which USDA projects will decline further in 2026. Ground beef retail prices averaged near $6.90 per pound as of April 2026, up sharply year-over-year, while broader beef prices are forecast to rise more than 10% for the year. Resilient consumer demand, supported by strong exports and limited substitution, has kept wholesale cutout values elevated near $350–400 per cwt. Increased imports of lean trimmings are helping stabilize ground beef supply, though tariffs add cost pressure. Summer grilling demand and any shifts in import policy represent near-term variables that could influence price trajectories through year-end.