Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 95% implied probability to win South Dakota's gubernatorial election on November 3, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democrat has held the office since 2002—and a weak Democratic field headlined by former legislator Dan Ahlers. Recent Emerson/KELO polls from mid-March show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading the competitive GOP primary field over incumbent Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (who ascended after Gov. Kristi Noem's resignation), Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen ahead of the June 2 primary, reinforcing party strength amid low Democratic turnout historically. Scenarios to challenge this include a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, withdrawal, or extraordinary voter shifts, though base rates favor the Republican path to victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
95%
民主党
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
95%
民主党
$2,440 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 95% implied probability to win South Dakota's gubernatorial election on November 3, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democrat has held the office since 2002—and a weak Democratic field headlined by former legislator Dan Ahlers. Recent Emerson/KELO polls from mid-March show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading the competitive GOP primary field over incumbent Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (who ascended after Gov. Kristi Noem's resignation), Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen ahead of the June 2 primary, reinforcing party strength amid low Democratic turnout historically. Scenarios to challenge this include a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, withdrawal, or extraordinary voter shifts, though base rates favor the Republican path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$2,440结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 95% implied probability to win South Dakota's gubernatorial election on November 3, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democrat has held the office since 2002—and a weak Democratic field headlined by former legislator Dan Ahlers. Recent Emerson/KELO polls from mid-March show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading the competitive GOP primary field over incumbent Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (who ascended after Gov. Kristi Noem's resignation), Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen ahead of the June 2 primary, reinforcing party strength amid low Democratic turnout historically. Scenarios to challenge this include a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, withdrawal, or extraordinary voter shifts, though base rates favor the Republican path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$2,440结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 95% implied probability to win South Dakota's gubernatorial election on November 3, driven by the state's entrenched Republican dominance—no Democrat has held the office since 2002—and a weak Democratic field headlined by former legislator Dan Ahlers. Recent Emerson/KELO polls from mid-March show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading the competitive GOP primary field over incumbent Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (who ascended after Gov. Kristi Noem's resignation), Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen ahead of the June 2 primary, reinforcing party strength amid low Democratic turnout historically. Scenarios to challenge this include a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, withdrawal, or extraordinary voter shifts, though base rates favor the Republican path to victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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