United Russia's 95.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Russia's September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party, backed by President Putin, administrative resources, redrawn constituencies, expanded electronic voting, and exclusion of non-systemic opposition. Recent March polls (FOM: 41%, WCIOM: 29–32%) show United Russia leading party lists amid a slight downward trend, while party insiders target 55% lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts despite challenges in 30 regions like Siberia and the Far East; leaked vetting dossiers underscore tight internal control. Alterations would require extraordinary shocks like economic collapse, war reversals, or mass protests, though regime stability minimizes these risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于统一俄罗斯党（ER） 95.5%
公民平台（GP） 1.2%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.1%
新人民党（NL） <1%
$892,513 交易量
$892,513 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
96%
公民平台（GP）
1%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
1%
新人民党（NL）
1%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
1%
公正俄罗斯——为真理党（SRZP）
1%
祖国党
<1%
统一俄罗斯党（ER） 95.5%
公民平台（GP） 1.2%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.1%
新人民党（NL） <1%
$892,513 交易量
$892,513 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
$469,691 交易量
96%
公民平台（GP）
$76,298 交易量
1%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
$77,067 交易量
1%
新人民党（NL）
$34,430 交易量
1%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
$31,464 交易量
1%
公正俄罗斯——为真理党（SRZP）
$128,752 交易量
1%
祖国党
$74,810 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Russia's September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party, backed by President Putin, administrative resources, redrawn constituencies, expanded electronic voting, and exclusion of non-systemic opposition. Recent March polls (FOM: 41%, WCIOM: 29–32%) show United Russia leading party lists amid a slight downward trend, while party insiders target 55% lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts despite challenges in 30 regions like Siberia and the Far East; leaked vetting dossiers underscore tight internal control. Alterations would require extraordinary shocks like economic collapse, war reversals, or mass protests, though regime stability minimizes these risks.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
交易量
$892,513结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Russia's September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party, backed by President Putin, administrative resources, redrawn constituencies, expanded electronic voting, and exclusion of non-systemic opposition. Recent March polls (FOM: 41%, WCIOM: 29–32%) show United Russia leading party lists amid a slight downward trend, while party insiders target 55% lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts despite challenges in 30 regions like Siberia and the Far East; leaked vetting dossiers underscore tight internal control. Alterations would require extraordinary shocks like economic collapse, war reversals, or mass protests, though regime stability minimizes these risks.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$892,513结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's 95.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Russia's September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party, backed by President Putin, administrative resources, redrawn constituencies, expanded electronic voting, and exclusion of non-systemic opposition. Recent March polls (FOM: 41%, WCIOM: 29–32%) show United Russia leading party lists amid a slight downward trend, while party insiders target 55% lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts despite challenges in 30 regions like Siberia and the Far East; leaked vetting dossiers underscore tight internal control. Alterations would require extraordinary shocks like economic collapse, war reversals, or mass protests, though regime stability minimizes these risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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