Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from recent straw polls like CPAC's late March survey showing Vance at 53% and Rubio at 35%. Rubio's odds have surged amid his high-profile role in early March Iran tensions and a reported GOP donor "draft Rubio" push, while Vance's probabilities recently fell below 37% as President Trump informally polls advisers on his potential successors. RFK Jr.'s HHS leadership and 2024 crossover appeal from endorsing Trump continue drawing trader support despite his 2025 denials of ambitions, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify the crowded primary field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于J.D. Vance 36.6%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥 20.5%
塔克·卡尔森 5.0%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯 2.8%
$490,654,743 交易量
$490,654,743 交易量
J.D. Vance
37%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥
21%
塔克·卡尔森
5%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
3%
格伦·扬金
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
托马斯·马西
2%
唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.
2%
Rand Paul
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
伊万卡·特朗普
1%
泰德·克鲁茨
1%
分组项标题：埃隆·马斯克
1%
塔尔西·加巴德尔
1%
玛乔里·泰勒·格林
1%
分组项标题：妮基·黑利
1%
格雷格·艾博特
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪二世
1%
布赖恩·肯普
1%
分组项标题：马特·盖茨
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
莎拉·哈卡比·桑德斯
1%
凯蒂·布里特
1%
克里斯蒂·诺姆
1%
乔·肯特
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
皮特·赫格塞斯
1%
拜伦·唐纳斯
1%
分组项标题：Elise Stefanik
1%
乔什·霍利
1%
约翰·桑恩
1%
分组项标题：汤姆·布雷迪
1%
斯蒂夫·班农
1%
埃里卡·柯克
1%
迈克·彭斯
1%
J.D. Vance 36.6%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥 20.5%
塔克·卡尔森 5.0%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯 2.8%
$490,654,743 交易量
$490,654,743 交易量
J.D. Vance
37%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥
21%
塔克·卡尔森
5%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
3%
格伦·扬金
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
托马斯·马西
2%
唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.
2%
Rand Paul
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
伊万卡·特朗普
1%
泰德·克鲁茨
1%
分组项标题：埃隆·马斯克
1%
塔尔西·加巴德尔
1%
玛乔里·泰勒·格林
1%
分组项标题：妮基·黑利
1%
格雷格·艾博特
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪二世
1%
布赖恩·肯普
1%
分组项标题：马特·盖茨
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
莎拉·哈卡比·桑德斯
1%
凯蒂·布里特
1%
克里斯蒂·诺姆
1%
乔·肯特
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
皮特·赫格塞斯
1%
拜伦·唐纳斯
1%
分组项标题：Elise Stefanik
1%
乔什·霍利
1%
约翰·桑恩
1%
分组项标题：汤姆·布雷迪
1%
斯蒂夫·班农
1%
埃里卡·柯克
1%
迈克·彭斯
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from recent straw polls like CPAC's late March survey showing Vance at 53% and Rubio at 35%. Rubio's odds have surged amid his high-profile role in early March Iran tensions and a reported GOP donor "draft Rubio" push, while Vance's probabilities recently fell below 37% as President Trump informally polls advisers on his potential successors. RFK Jr.'s HHS leadership and 2024 crossover appeal from endorsing Trump continue drawing trader support despite his 2025 denials of ambitions, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify the crowded primary field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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