Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, reflecting seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada that award PQ a likely majority (63 seats) despite a tied popular vote with the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) at 33% each in the latest Léger poll (March 20-22). The CAQ's collapse to 9% support stems from Premier François Legault's January resignation amid record-low approval, enabling PQ efficiencies in first-past-the-post ridings outside Montreal where PLQ dominates. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have narrowed the gap from earlier February polls (PQ 30-32%, PLQ 26-27%), but projections maintain PQ's edge; Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% trail distant third, with no viable path to plurality. Upcoming CAQ leadership contest and regional swings could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于魁人党 57%
魁北克自由党 32%
魁人党 9%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$385,285 交易量
$385,285 交易量
2026-10-05
魁人党
57%
魁北克自由党
32%
魁人党
9%
魁北克保守党
1%
魁团
<1%
魁北克绿党
<1%
魁人党 57%
魁北克自由党 32%
魁人党 9%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$385,285 交易量
$385,285 交易量
2026-10-05
魁人党
$37,082 交易量
57%
魁北克自由党
$39,801 交易量
32%
魁人党
$37,265 交易量
9%
魁北克保守党
$121,752 交易量
1%
魁团
$46,161 交易量
<1%
魁北克绿党
$103,223 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, reflecting seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada that award PQ a likely majority (63 seats) despite a tied popular vote with the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) at 33% each in the latest Léger poll (March 20-22). The CAQ's collapse to 9% support stems from Premier François Legault's January resignation amid record-low approval, enabling PQ efficiencies in first-past-the-post ridings outside Montreal where PLQ dominates. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have narrowed the gap from earlier February polls (PQ 30-32%, PLQ 26-27%), but projections maintain PQ's edge; Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% trail distant third, with no viable path to plurality. Upcoming CAQ leadership contest and regional swings could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$385,285结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, reflecting seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada that award PQ a likely majority (63 seats) despite a tied popular vote with the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) at 33% each in the latest Léger poll (March 20-22). The CAQ's collapse to 9% support stems from Premier François Legault's January resignation amid record-low approval, enabling PQ efficiencies in first-past-the-post ridings outside Montreal where PLQ dominates. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have narrowed the gap from earlier February polls (PQ 30-32%, PLQ 26-27%), but projections maintain PQ's edge; Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% trail distant third, with no viable path to plurality. Upcoming CAQ leadership contest and regional swings could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$385,285结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, reflecting seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada that award PQ a likely majority (63 seats) despite a tied popular vote with the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) at 33% each in the latest Léger poll (March 20-22). The CAQ's collapse to 9% support stems from Premier François Legault's January resignation amid record-low approval, enabling PQ efficiencies in first-past-the-post ridings outside Montreal where PLQ dominates. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have narrowed the gap from earlier February polls (PQ 30-32%, PLQ 26-27%), but projections maintain PQ's edge; Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% trail distant third, with no viable path to plurality. Upcoming CAQ leadership contest and regional swings could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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