Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% as trader consensus views him as the Republican frontrunner, bolstered by dominant GOP primary polls and his role as heir apparent amid President Trump's term limits, though his probabilities have recently declined amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.3%, gaining from book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire and Democratic field disarray post-2024, signaling trader bets on his national fundraising prowess. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects a surge from March diplomatic maneuvers on Iran and Venezuela, elevating his profile in Trump succession talks and drawing GOP donor interest. With no primaries until 2028 and 2026 midterms looming, the fragmented fields keep the race tight; separations could emerge from midterm outcomes, endorsements, scandals, or cabinet successes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.3%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.7%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 6.0%
$480,467,654 交易量
$480,467,654 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
16%
马尔科·鲁比奥
11%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
JD Vance 17.6%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.3%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.7%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 6.0%
$480,467,654 交易量
$480,467,654 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
16%
马尔科·鲁比奥
11%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
安迪·贝塞尔
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% as trader consensus views him as the Republican frontrunner, bolstered by dominant GOP primary polls and his role as heir apparent amid President Trump's term limits, though his probabilities have recently declined amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.3%, gaining from book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire and Democratic field disarray post-2024, signaling trader bets on his national fundraising prowess. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects a surge from March diplomatic maneuvers on Iran and Venezuela, elevating his profile in Trump succession talks and drawing GOP donor interest. With no primaries until 2028 and 2026 midterms looming, the fragmented fields keep the race tight; separations could emerge from midterm outcomes, endorsements, scandals, or cabinet successes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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