Republican incumbent Tom Cole's decisive 65%-35% primary runoff victory over challenger Paul Bondar on August 27 has solidified trader consensus at 93% for the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race. The district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+14) and Cole's influential role as House Appropriations Committee Chairman provide structural advantages against Democrat Mary Lawson Jones ahead of the November 5 general election. Recent FEC filings confirm Cole's fundraising dominance, with over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Jones's under $100,000, and no major polling challenges his lead in this safe seat. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or a massive national Democratic turnout surge, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in similar districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
92%
民主党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom Cole's decisive 65%-35% primary runoff victory over challenger Paul Bondar on August 27 has solidified trader consensus at 93% for the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race. The district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+14) and Cole's influential role as House Appropriations Committee Chairman provide structural advantages against Democrat Mary Lawson Jones ahead of the November 5 general election. Recent FEC filings confirm Cole's fundraising dominance, with over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Jones's under $100,000, and no major polling challenges his lead in this safe seat. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or a massive national Democratic turnout surge, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom Cole's decisive 65%-35% primary runoff victory over challenger Paul Bondar on August 27 has solidified trader consensus at 93% for the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race. The district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+14) and Cole's influential role as House Appropriations Committee Chairman provide structural advantages against Democrat Mary Lawson Jones ahead of the November 5 general election. Recent FEC filings confirm Cole's fundraising dominance, with over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Jones's under $100,000, and no major polling challenges his lead in this safe seat. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or a massive national Democratic turnout surge, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Tom Cole's decisive 65%-35% primary runoff victory over challenger Paul Bondar on August 27 has solidified trader consensus at 93% for the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race. The district's strong Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+14) and Cole's influential role as House Appropriations Committee Chairman provide structural advantages against Democrat Mary Lawson Jones ahead of the November 5 general election. Recent FEC filings confirm Cole's fundraising dominance, with over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Jones's under $100,000, and no major polling challenges his lead in this safe seat. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or a massive national Democratic turnout surge, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in similar districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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