Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" shares at 59.5% for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026," reflecting elevated risks of specified high-impact events amid the ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now on day 34 as of April 2. President Trump's recent address vowed continued strikes for weeks while contemplating ground operations to seize nuclear materials, amid warnings of depleted targets without invasion; Iranian missile barrages, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and domestic protests signal regime instability. Taiwan's extended Han Kuang war games underscore invasion fears, with analysts noting China's potential exploitation of US distraction. No verified developments on Xi Jinping's ouster or Trump's removal, but sustained escalation drives the closely contested odds through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$443,742 交易量
$443,742 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$443,742 交易量
$443,742 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" shares at 59.5% for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026," reflecting elevated risks of specified high-impact events amid the ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now on day 34 as of April 2. President Trump's recent address vowed continued strikes for weeks while contemplating ground operations to seize nuclear materials, amid warnings of depleted targets without invasion; Iranian missile barrages, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and domestic protests signal regime instability. Taiwan's extended Han Kuang war games underscore invasion fears, with analysts noting China's potential exploitation of US distraction. No verified developments on Xi Jinping's ouster or Trump's removal, but sustained escalation drives the closely contested odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$443,742结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" shares at 59.5% for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026," reflecting elevated risks of specified high-impact events amid the ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now on day 34 as of April 2. President Trump's recent address vowed continued strikes for weeks while contemplating ground operations to seize nuclear materials, amid warnings of depleted targets without invasion; Iranian missile barrages, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and domestic protests signal regime instability. Taiwan's extended Han Kuang war games underscore invasion fears, with analysts noting China's potential exploitation of US distraction. No verified developments on Xi Jinping's ouster or Trump's removal, but sustained escalation drives the closely contested odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
交易量
$443,742结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" shares at 59.5% for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026," reflecting elevated risks of specified high-impact events amid the ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, now on day 34 as of April 2. President Trump's recent address vowed continued strikes for weeks while contemplating ground operations to seize nuclear materials, amid warnings of depleted targets without invasion; Iranian missile barrages, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and domestic protests signal regime instability. Taiwan's extended Han Kuang war games underscore invasion fears, with analysts noting China's potential exploitation of US distraction. No verified developments on Xi Jinping's ouster or Trump's removal, but sustained escalation drives the closely contested odds through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题