Market icon
选举·主要

NH-01民主党初选获胜者

Market icon
选举·主要

NH-01民主党初选获胜者

斯蒂芬妮·沙欣 60%

Maura Sullivan 22%

Carleigh Beriont 11%

希思·霍华德 5.2%

Polymarket
NEW

斯蒂芬妮·沙欣 60%

Maura Sullivan 22%

Carleigh Beriont 11%

希思·霍华德 5.2%

Polymarket
NEW

斯蒂芬妮·沙欣

$6,852 交易量

60%

Maura Sullivan

$1,004 交易量

22%

Carleigh Beriont

$0 交易量

11%

希思·霍华德

$0 交易量

5%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the open NH-01 Democratic primary—set for September 8 amid Chris Pappas's Senate bid—positions Stefany Shaheen as the frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting her sustained polling edge from late 2025 Saint Anselm and UNH surveys, high name recognition tied to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's legacy, and prior Portsmouth City Council experience that appeals to primary voters. Maura Sullivan trails at 22.5% despite dominating fundraising, including three straight quarters over Shaheen through Q4 2025 and recent grassroots gains in Manchester as of mid-February. Carleigh Beriont garners 11% on Hampton select board credentials, while Heath Howard sits at 5.2%; absent fresh polls, markets prioritize Shaheen's structural advantages in this contested field.

Trader consensus in the open NH-01 Democratic primary—set for September 8 amid Chris Pappas's Senate bid—positions Stefany Shaheen as the frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting her sustained polling edge from late 2025 Saint Anselm and UNH surveys, high name recognition tied to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's legacy, and prior Portsmouth City Council experience that appeals to primary voters. Maura Sullivan trails at 22.5% despite dominating fundraising, including three straight quarters over Shaheen through Q4 2025 and recent grassroots gains in Manchester as of mid-February. Carleigh Beriont garners 11% on Hampton select board credentials, while Heath Howard sits at 5.2%; absent fresh polls, markets prioritize Shaheen's structural advantages in this contested field.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the open NH-01 Democratic primary—set for September 8 amid Chris Pappas's Senate bid—positions Stefany Shaheen as the frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting her sustained polling edge from late 2025 Saint Anselm and UNH surveys, high name recognition tied to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's legacy, and prior Portsmouth City Council experience that appeals to primary voters. Maura Sullivan trails at 22.5% despite dominating fundraising, including three straight quarters over Shaheen through Q4 2025 and recent grassroots gains in Manchester as of mid-February. Carleigh Beriont garners 11% on Hampton select board credentials, while Heath Howard sits at 5.2%; absent fresh polls, markets prioritize Shaheen's structural advantages in this contested field.

Trader consensus in the open NH-01 Democratic primary—set for September 8 amid Chris Pappas's Senate bid—positions Stefany Shaheen as the frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability, reflecting her sustained polling edge from late 2025 Saint Anselm and UNH surveys, high name recognition tied to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's legacy, and prior Portsmouth City Council experience that appeals to primary voters. Maura Sullivan trails at 22.5% despite dominating fundraising, including three straight quarters over Shaheen through Q4 2025 and recent grassroots gains in Manchester as of mid-February. Carleigh Beriont garners 11% on Hampton select board credentials, while Heath Howard sits at 5.2%; absent fresh polls, markets prioritize Shaheen's structural advantages in this contested field.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"NH-01民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"斯蒂芬妮·沙欣"，概率为 60%，其次是"Maura Sullivan"，概率为 23%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 60¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 60%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"NH-01民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Nov 25, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"NH-01民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"NH-01民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"斯蒂芬妮·沙欣"，概率为 60%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 60%。紧随其后的结果是"Maura Sullivan"，概率为 23%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"NH-01民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。