Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, implying Keir Starmer's Labour government endures despite early turbulence, with Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner at 20.5% as the leading successor amid leadership speculation. This positioning stems from last month's Autumn Budget backlash—Chancellor Rachel Reeves's welfare reforms and employer National Insurance hikes sparked a 49-MP Labour rebellion and public discontent—but Starmer retained control without triggering a no-confidence vote. Falling polls show Reform UK's Nigel Farage gaining ground, boosting his 8.6% odds, while Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting reflect cabinet prominence. With a parliamentary majority and no snap election imminent before 2029, traders weigh stability against risks like economic woes or scandals shifting probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年没有下任首相 35%
安吉拉·雷纳 21%
埃德·米利班德 10.7%
奈杰尔·法拉奇 8.6%
$3,568,668 交易量
$3,568,668 交易量
2026年没有下任首相
35%
安吉拉·雷纳
21%
埃德·米利班德
11%
奈杰尔·法拉奇
9%
韦斯·斯特里廷
6%
伊薇特·库珀
4%
鲁珀特·洛伊
4%
安迪·伯纳姆
4%
沙巴娜·马哈茂德
2%
Al Carns
1%
露西·鲍威尔
1%
大卫·拉米
1%
雷切尔·里夫斯
1%
凯米·巴德诺克
<1%
达伦·琼斯
<1%
鲍里斯·约翰逊
<1%
埃德·戴维
<1%
布里奇特·菲利普森
<1%
罗伯特·詹里克
<1%
詹姆斯·克莱弗利
<1%
2026年没有下任首相 35%
安吉拉·雷纳 21%
埃德·米利班德 10.7%
奈杰尔·法拉奇 8.6%
$3,568,668 交易量
$3,568,668 交易量
2026年没有下任首相
35%
安吉拉·雷纳
21%
埃德·米利班德
11%
奈杰尔·法拉奇
9%
韦斯·斯特里廷
6%
伊薇特·库珀
4%
鲁珀特·洛伊
4%
安迪·伯纳姆
4%
沙巴娜·马哈茂德
2%
Al Carns
1%
露西·鲍威尔
1%
大卫·拉米
1%
雷切尔·里夫斯
1%
凯米·巴德诺克
<1%
达伦·琼斯
<1%
鲍里斯·约翰逊
<1%
埃德·戴维
<1%
布里奇特·菲利普森
<1%
罗伯特·詹里克
<1%
詹姆斯·克莱弗利
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, implying Keir Starmer's Labour government endures despite early turbulence, with Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner at 20.5% as the leading successor amid leadership speculation. This positioning stems from last month's Autumn Budget backlash—Chancellor Rachel Reeves's welfare reforms and employer National Insurance hikes sparked a 49-MP Labour rebellion and public discontent—but Starmer retained control without triggering a no-confidence vote. Falling polls show Reform UK's Nigel Farage gaining ground, boosting his 8.6% odds, while Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting reflect cabinet prominence. With a parliamentary majority and no snap election imminent before 2029, traders weigh stability against risks like economic woes or scandals shifting probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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