Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrat Andy Kim at 92.5% to win New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by polling averages showing him ahead of Republican Curtis Bashaw by 20+ points in recent surveys like Emerson College's October poll (52%-31%). The vacancy stems from Sen. Bob Menendez's July corruption conviction, resignation, and recent suspension of his independent bid, clearing the path after Kim's dominant primary win. New Jersey's deep-blue status (D+12 partisan voter index), lack of GOP Senate victories since 1972, and strong early voting turnout among Democrats reinforce this positioning. While late scandals, unexpected Republican mobilization, or polling misses could shift odds, no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
93%
共和党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrat Andy Kim at 92.5% to win New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by polling averages showing him ahead of Republican Curtis Bashaw by 20+ points in recent surveys like Emerson College's October poll (52%-31%). The vacancy stems from Sen. Bob Menendez's July corruption conviction, resignation, and recent suspension of his independent bid, clearing the path after Kim's dominant primary win. New Jersey's deep-blue status (D+12 partisan voter index), lack of GOP Senate victories since 1972, and strong early voting turnout among Democrats reinforce this positioning. While late scandals, unexpected Republican mobilization, or polling misses could shift odds, no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrat Andy Kim at 92.5% to win New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by polling averages showing him ahead of Republican Curtis Bashaw by 20+ points in recent surveys like Emerson College's October poll (52%-31%). The vacancy stems from Sen. Bob Menendez's July corruption conviction, resignation, and recent suspension of his independent bid, clearing the path after Kim's dominant primary win. New Jersey's deep-blue status (D+12 partisan voter index), lack of GOP Senate victories since 1972, and strong early voting turnout among Democrats reinforce this positioning. While late scandals, unexpected Republican mobilization, or polling misses could shift odds, no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrat Andy Kim at 92.5% to win New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by polling averages showing him ahead of Republican Curtis Bashaw by 20+ points in recent surveys like Emerson College's October poll (52%-31%). The vacancy stems from Sen. Bob Menendez's July corruption conviction, resignation, and recent suspension of his independent bid, clearing the path after Kim's dominant primary win. New Jersey's deep-blue status (D+12 partisan voter index), lack of GOP Senate victories since 1972, and strong early voting turnout among Democrats reinforce this positioning. While late scandals, unexpected Republican mobilization, or polling misses could shift odds, no such catalysts have emerged ahead of the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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